2012 NBA Draft Preview

1.   New Orleans Hornets

a.    NBA Draft Express (as of 6/23/12) says: Anthony Davis, PF, Kentucky

                                         i.    This one is easy.  The best player by far.

b.    If they trade down

                                         i.    They won’t trade down, but I wonder what they would do if Charlotte or Washington gave them a godfather offer to swap picks?  I say they probably still don’t accept it.  After that Ariza/Okafor trade, they’re in tank mode.  They want the Thunder’s blueprint (get a star, suck for the next two years to get good/great players to put around him and go from there).

2.   Charlotte Bobcats

a.    Thomas Robinson, PF, Kansas

                                         i.    I think this is where they’ll go but I don’t like it.  T-Rob will be a good player but he may not have a position at the next level.  He’s 6-8, 240.  A lot of 3’s are that size these days and he can’t really guard any of them.  I’d go with either Michael Kidd-Gilchrist (“MKG”) or Bradley Beal.  Both of those guys have the size and skill to play the 2 or 3 at the next level.  Beal may only be 6-4, but he played the 4 man for Florida a lot and average 7 rpg.  MKG is 6-6 and also average 7 boards but isn’t the shooter Beal is (Beal shot 34% from 3 while averaging 5 3’s per game and MKG shot 25% on 1.3 3’s per game).  He’s more of a slasher.  I don’t care who you go with between these two because in my opinion both are future all-stars at the 2 guard position. 

b.    If they trade down

                                         i.    Interesting here.  They have a ton of needs and could conceivably trade down to #6 with Portland and grab a good player and maybe a 1st next year as well.  However, I think they’ll stay put and build around the #2 pick (I just hope it’s MKG or Beal)

3.   Washington Wizards

a.    Bradley Beal, SG, Florida

                                         i.    Makes perfect sense.  They have to get either MKG or Beal.  No other option even matter.  They need a guard who can score to play alongside Wall.  I like Beal a little more just because of his shooting.  However, if Washington would decide to, MKG is a better defender and having him, Wall, Okafor and Ariza on the court at the same time would be a quite a defensive team.  This however leads to my “Do Wizards people think they can actually play Nene and Okafor at the same time?” question.  I mean, really, their offense would be horrible if you had those two out there at the same time.  Nene is best on the block and Okafor does not have a jump shot. 

b.    If they trade up

                                         i.    No reason to.  They want 2 guys and either both or one will be available at 3.

c.    If they trade down

                                         i.    I hope they don’t.  I like what they’re doing and the team they built once they rid themselves of the plague, I mean Andray Blatche and his horrendous contract. 

4.   Cleveland Cavaliers

a.    MKG, SF, Kentucky

                                         i.    I like it.  If a really good center was available, I go with him instead, but MKG would be a good fit here.  The other option would be a Thomas Robinson.  They only have 6 guys under contract for next year and one is Luke Walton.  They are thin up front but I wouldn’t take a flyer on an unknown (Drummond) or a career average center (Zeller).  Robinson/MKG/Beal and pretty sure second tier guys and Cleveland needs to come away with one of them.

b.    If they trade up

                                         i.    Don’t know why they would.  They want/need one of the top 4 guys and they are in the 4^th spot.  No reason to move up or down.

c.    If they trade down

                                         i.    The only way this would make sense is to trade with Houston and get the 14 and 16 picks and Kevin Martin and Sam Dalembert while giving up this pick, Luke Walton and their 24th pick (from the Lakers).  This make sense for two reasons: Houston want to lower its cap number and get a good young player to slide into their team.  Cleveland still gets two depths picks in the middle of the draft where they can get two young bigs (Fab Melo and Tyler Zeller) and get a veteran center and an under-rated 2 guard who can shoot and spread the floor for Kyrie Irving.  If this trade happens, Cleveland would become a quick candidate for a 7 or 8 spot in the Eastern Conference. 

5.   Sacramento Kings

a.    Harrison Barnes, SF, North Carolina

                                         i.    Harrison is a very smart person but just an average basketball player.  He has the skills and the size (6-7, 230) but just never took over at North Carolina.  Taking a guys fifth when he had two years to show his dominance is a bit risky.  Barnes will have a 15 year career, but will he ever make an all-star team? 

b.    If they trade up

                                         i.    I could see them trying to trade up, but it wouldn’t make sense for anyone to trade down.  If they do trade up, it would be to get either Beal or MKG.

c.    If they trade down

                                         i.    This I believe is a more likely scenario.  I could see them moving down with a team in love with a certain player at the 5 spot.  They don’t want to move down too much but if they could get a good veteran and a pick in return, it might be worth it.  (Milwaukee’s #12 pick and Monta Ellis for the #5, who says no?  And in case you’re wondering why Milwaukee would give up Ellis?  He’s due $22 million over the next two years and they could use the cap relieve.)

6.   Portland Trail Blazers

a.    Andre Drummond, C, UConn

                                         i.    This is the guy who in 5 years we’ll all say “Who?”.  He’s 7-0, 280, but averaged just 10 points in 28 minutes for UConn.  Here’s a telling quote from his UConn teammate, Jeremy Lamb, about Drummond’s potential: “It depends on if he wants to work.”  OUCH.  That’s why you don’t draft him.

b.    If they move up

                                         i.    Don’t see how they could unless they put both picks together and jumped up to grab the 2 or the 3 spot.  I don’t know why they would do that however.

c.    If they trade down

                                         i.    They need a point guard and I think they’ll try to grab Austin Rivers before New Orleans can at the #10 pick.  So, the trade the make the most sense for them would be to give up the #6 pick and Ray Felton to Toronto for the #8 and Ed Davis.  The problem is whether or not Toronto would say yes.

7.   Golden State Warriors

a.    Damian Lillard, PG, Weber State

                                         i.    I watched Lillard play 2 games this year and he has some talent.  However, Golden State does not need another shoot first PG.  They just don’t.  What they need is a wing player who can play both ways.  That’s why they’re trying to trade this pick for Lu Deng. 

b.    If they trade up

                                         i.    This is an outside chance because they do not have any assets they’d trade but if they did, they might trade up for Harrison Barnes at the #5 pick, if they only have to give up a small amount in return.

c.    If they trade down

                                         i.    This is much more likely as they may try to trade it away (for Deng or maybe even Igoudala).  For their sake, I’d like to see them trade this pick.  If they could move down and grab a good wing player, it could really help them.  Wouldn’t Denver be willing to swap their pick (#20) for this pick if they also had to give up Brewer and Wilson Chandler?  I think if Drummond is available here (a perfect George Karl guy), Denver would try that swap.

8.   Toronto Raptors

a.    Jeremy Lamb, PG, UConn

                                         i.    I’m not sure if I like anything about this team.  It’s such a weird team.  For me, they just need to draft the best available player, and with what’s available, I’d agree with this pick.

b.    If they trade up

                                         i.    If they really like one of the 2-4 guys, I think they should go for it.  They need a guy to build around (They’ve failed with Bargnani being a #1 guy).

c.    If they trade down

                                         i.    Only makes sense if they get a good veteran in return.  They need a guy who’s under a long-term deal that they don’t have to worry about leaving.  Would they trade this pick straight up for Kyle Lowry (2 years left on his contract) and Luis Scola (3 year left on his)?

9.   Detroit Pistons

a.    John Henson, PF, North Carolina

                                         i.    Decent pick.  Super long player with some talent.  He can play next to Monroe and you have yourself some real good rim support.  I’m not sure they could do much better at this point unless they want to get the most talented player and then they take Perry Jones III, who has Drummond-itis but is a 6-11 wing player (kind of like a poor man’s Durant.  He has 80% of Durant’s talent but just 20% of Durant desire for greatness).

b.    If they trade up

                                         i.    Unlikely.  They like what they’re building and no one really adds anything outside of the top-4.

c.    If they trade down

                                         i.    They need a PF.  If they think that guy is Perry Jones III, then they should try to trade down a few places and pick up a vet or early 2^nd in the process.

10.                New Orleans Hornets

a.    Austin Rivers, PG, Duke

                                         i.    Great pick.  Austin Rivers, Eric Gordon, and Anthony Davis?  Wow.  That’s quite a trio.  Plus, they have Rashard Lewis’ expiring contract $24 mill (!!!!) and they could use that to grab assets from a team that’s ready to give up.  (Would a bad Phoenix team trade Gortat (2 years left on a deal) and Childress (3 years left) for Lewis?  That would give New Orleans their center.

b.    If they trade up

                                         i.    Unlikely.  No assets to trade.  If it happened, it would be to jump Golden State to get a PG, but they’d have to give up their first rounder in the future.

c.    If they trade down

                                         i.    If Rivers is gone by the point, I’d trade this pick for a later #1 this year and a future #1, or Kyle Lowry.

11.                Portland Trail Blazers

a.    Dion Waiters, SG, Syracuse

                                         i.    This is an OK pick.  They have a stud in Aldridge and need to build around him.  How much better, realistically, will Waiters make them?  Either package this pick to move up into the top-4 or trade it for a veteran that can help now.

12.                Milwaukee Bucks

a.    Tyler Zeller, C, North Carolina

                                         i.    Really?  You trade Bogut to get a younger, worse version of Bogut?  I like Zeller, but he’s a backup center on a good team.  If I’m Milwaukee, I’m swinging for the stars and taking Perry Jones III, because, honestly, he’s got one of the top-5 ceilings in this draft.  No one thinks he’ll reach it, but you never know.  PJIII has guard skills and is 6-11.  That’s hard to replicate.  And if you plan on using 2 shoot first PGs (Ellis/Jennings) wouldn’t you love an uber-talented 6-11 guy running the wing?

b.    If they trade up

                                         i.    DO IT, MILWAUKEE!!  Go get the #5 pick!  Give your fan base some excitement!  Right now, the Bucks are about as exciting as a born-again Christian on a Saturday night.  (I kid, I kid.  But seriously, I’m from Wisconsin, and trust me when I say: NO ONE CARES ABOUT THE BUCKS.  It’s all Packers and Brewers and Bucky in that state.)

13.                Phoenix Suns

a.    Kendall Marshall, PG, North Carolina

                                         i.    Who cares?!  This team is not good and Steve Nash is still pretty good.  Marshall kind of makes sense but he’s no Nash.  If I’m them, I’d take the best player available here.

14.                Houston Rockets

a.    Jared Sullinger, PF, Ohio State

                                         i.    No way.  He’s dropping too fast. I say someone like Boston at 22 takes him.  They need a center, and I think if they stay here they should go for someone like Zeller or Fab Melo.

b.    If they trade up

                                         i.    I have an idea!  Call MJ, offer Lowry, Scola, the #14 pick, and the #16 pick for the #2 pick and Ty Thomas (who is due $27 mill over the next 3 years and Charlotte wants to get rid of).  This will solve problems for Charlotte (gives them their best two players and depth with the picks) and gives Houston their choice of MKG, Beal, or T-Rob.  If that doesn’t work, offer the same deal to Washington.  If that doesn’t work, offer it to Cleveland.  Houston has assets, they need to start getting talent.

c.    If they trade down

                                         i.    Very possible.  If they could get a veteran that could really help them (Dwight???) they’d trade these picks plus Lowry and someone else to do it. 

15.                Philadelphia 76ers

a.    Perry Jones III, SF, Baylor

                                         i.    Love it.  Not sure what their plan for him is (doesn’t he do everything Thaddeus Young does?) but he’s the best player available.  If they go for fit, there is a chance they choose a C/PF player like Arnett Moultrie.

16.                Houston Rockets

a.    Meyers Leonard, C, Illinois

                                         i.    I don’t understand this.  I have no idea who this is but he’s 7-1, 250.  So, in other words, he’s super skinny.  Next, please!

17.                Dallas Mavericks

a.    Terrence Jones, PF, Kentucky

                                         i.    We played against him twice at Georgia.  I was impressed with him.  He has A TON of talent and should be a top-10 pick.  However, he doesn’t seem to “Get it” yet.  I don’t know his fit on this team, but he’s best suited as a small 4 and not a 3 as he doesn’t really have the lateral quickness to guard most of the 3’s in the NBA.

18.                Minnesota Timberwolves

a.    Terrence Ross, SG, Washington

                                         i.    I like Ross, but not sure where he fits in with Minny.  They have so many young players, they have to turn some into a good vet soon, right?

19.                Orlando Magic

a.    Moe Harkless, SF, St John’s

                                         i.    Good player, loads of talent, but he’s a project.  What Orlando needs is a center and a point guard.  I’d go with Festus Ezeli here or Marquis Teague.

20.                Denver Nuggets

a.    Arnett Moultrie, PF/C, Mississippi State

                                         i.    He’s a talented player and fits in with the Denver style of play.  The other option would be to get a more beefy big man, like an Ezeli.

21.                Boston Celtics

a.    Quincy Miller, SF, Baylor

                                         i.    Good choice.  Loads of talent.  However, they need a SG here, so they’ll be hoping Terrence Ross drops to them here.

22.                Boston Celtics

a.    Fab Melo, C, Syracuse

                                         i.    I like this pick.  He’s probably a career back-up, but could be a very serviceable one.  He’s 7-0, 255 and is a good and willing defender.

23.                Atlanta Hawks

a.    Royce White, PF, Iowa State

                                         i.    They need a big for depth or to replace Josh Smith when he’s inevitably traded.  I’d kind of like to see them grab Draymond Green here but that’s unlikely.

24.                Cleveland Cavaliers

a.    Andrew Nicholson, PF, St Bonaventure

                                         i.    Don’t know a thing about him.  But Cleveland could use a serviceable big here.  I would think Miles Plumlee (7-0, 250) would also be an option here.

25.                Memphis Grizzlies

a.    Evan Fournier, SG, France

                                         i.    Don’t know much about him either.  I think it’s more likely they go with a PG here as a back up and challenger to Conley.  Someone like Marquis Teague or Tyshawn Tayler.

26.                Indiana Pacers

a.    Tyshawn Taylor

                                         i.    I disagree.  I think they will resign Hill and Hibbert but will lose David West after next year (contract is up next year).  I say they stick to their “Hard-Worker” mold and go Draymond Green here.

27.                Miami Heat

a.    Festus Ezeli, C, Vanderbilt

                                         i.    This one is easy for me.  Ezeli is an athletic, large man (6-11, 265).  Stats won’t blow you away but he just started playing basketball now that long ago.

28.                Oklahoma City Thunder

a.    Draymond Green, PF, Michigan State

                                         i.    I don’t really like it.  When would he play?  And OKC likes athletes they can mold, not polished players.  I think they’ll take an international player and stash them for a few years, or look at someone like Tony Wroten or Will Barten (young athletes).

29.                Chicago Bulls

a.    Jeff Taylor, SF, Vanderbilt

                                         i.    I like Jeff Taylor, but I think the Bulls go with his teammate, the dominate sharp shooter John Jenkins.  Jenkins is an incredible 3 point shooter with a quick release.  He’s the long-term solution to the guy who spreads the court for D-Rose.

30.                Golden State Warriors

a.    Marquis Teague

                                         i.    If they don’t go PG at the #7, this makes sense.  I think they need a Jeff Taylor, or Kim English, or Kyle O’Quin (Norfolk State).

NBA Finals

Real quick, I have the Heat in 6 in the finals.  I'm not sure how OKC matches up with LeBron down the stretch of games.  Durant is not physical enough to handle him and Sefolosha is too small.  They may try Ibaka (like how Boston tried Bass) but LeBron should be able to take advantage of that match-up.  So, this rests on LeBron's shoulders and his ability to beat his defender.

Euro 2012 Preview

Euro 2012 is upon us!  This looks to be a top-heavy tournament but there very well could be some huge upsets on who get out of group stage and who gets sent home early!  Let’s break it down.

Group A

1.       Greece

a.       I’ve always been a big fan of the Greek national team.  They’re more talented than most people realize and they’re very large and strong giving them a nice advantage on set pieces.  I think the 2004 Euro champs will win their group behind their staunch D and  all of their Panathinaikos and Olympiacos players.

2.       Russia

a.       Most of their best players didn’t exactly make it in England ( Arshavin, Bilyaletdinov, Pavlyuchenko) but they still have some good talent.  My only question is how good is their D?  If anything, that would be their downfall. 

3.       Czech Republic

a.       Don’t know too much about this team but I do know who Rosicky and Milan Baros are.  And they’re both very good.  Even with Cech and those two, I’m not sure the Czech’s can advance out of group stage after barely squeaking into the competition in the first place.

4.       Poland

a.       After Lewandowski, this team is thin.  I don’t think much of them.  They’re an auto-qualifier because they are the host and they’ll bow out quickly.

Group B

1.       Holland

a.       I called them my dark-horse in my 2010 World Cup preview and they didn’t disappoint. They way they can attack is unmatched.  They’re fast, powerful and lethal.  Everyone, including me, criticize their defense and rightfully so.  However, they’re attack is so good that other teams are usually on the back foot when facing them.  

2.       Germany

a.       I picked them to win the World Cup and now a lot of people are picking them to win this.  They breezed through qualifying but the group wasn’t much.  They’re depth in the midfield is incredible but lack the speed of top-flight wingers, forcing them to play a more grind-it-out style.

3.       Portugal

a.       This group is the group of death because of Portugal.  They made it into this tournament on goal differential over Norway!  (go ahead, name two players on Norway’s team…yeah, I can’t do it either)  Denmark was the winner of that group and now we’re here.  Portugal is easily a top-8 talented team in Europe, but there are not better than the two above them.

4.       Denmark

a.       They’re ridiculously overmatched.  Their only hope?  A three-way tie for second and they win out on goal differential.

Group C

1.       Spain

a.       Not only is Spain ridicusly good, they only have 2 outfield players over the age of 30.  Two!  That’s insane.  They’re strike force could be a problem (David Villa is injured and won’t play and Torres is not in form) but look for young Barca man Pedro to take the reins.  If not him, then Llorente.  Whoever it is will have a lot of opportunities with that incredible mid-field Spain possesses. 

2.       Croatia

a.       They have some real good players.  Led by Niko Kranjcar and Luka Modric, they quietly have a good team.  The strike force is led by Shaktar’s Eduardo who has 23 goals in 47 CAPS.  They’ll be able to score with and defend against Italy and that is why I have them advancing to the knockout stage.

3.       Italy

a.       A lot of people are high on them.  Not me.  They easily made it through qualifying that had Estonia place second.  (Is Estonia even a country?  Do they have more than 50,000 people who live there???)  The key for them will be if they can score or not.  Balotelli has only one international goal and neither Cassano, nor Di Natale is of world class caliber.  I think they could do very well in Brazil in 2014 but this year is not going to be their year.

4.       Ireland

a.       See: Denmark. 

Group D

1.       France

a.       Easy draw for a team that has holes.  Their defense is questionable at best and their midfield is thin.  A weak qualifying group helped them greatly.  (somehow they played Belarus twice and came away with 1 point from the two games…combined.)

2.       Sweden

a.       Ibrahimovic is still the man for this team, but he’ll need service from multiple players like Sunderland man Sebastian Larsson and the old vet Anders Svensson.  Not a very talented team but they’re in a equally talentless group.  What helps them the most?  They get France in game 3 and the French may already have wrapped up advancing by then and rest their best players.

3.       Ukraine

a.       They have a chance of advancing if they can defeat England (and hope for a draw against Sweden and then goal differential).  What hurts them?  They get England is game 3, when Rooney returns.  They’re a host nation and probably don’t belong in the tournament.  Portugal could easily win this group but will instead finish 3^rd in Group B.  Shevchenko is still hanging on but expect them to rely on Dynamo Kyiv man Oleh Husyev for their offense.

4.       England

a.       No Rooney for the first two games (red cards) and no Lampard for the tournament.  Not to mention they have a new manager and unrest with the captaincy, this is shaping up to be a huge failure in the eyes of the Brits.  Andy Carroll and Jermain Defoe don’t exactly strike fear in opponent's hearts.

Knockout Round

·         Germany over Greece

o   The Greeks have great D.  But so does Germany.  The difference?  The Germans actually know what offense is.

·         Spain over Sweden

o   Spain could play its U-23 team for this match and still dominate.

·         Netherlands over Russia

o   The Dutch overpower Mother Russia with ease.

·         Croatia over France

o   My dark horse team!  It couldn’t set-up any easier for a dark horse run out of Croatia.

·         Germany over Spain

o   The presumptive final becomes the semi-final. This will be another classic like the World Cup Semis.  The difference for me will be the lack of a in-form, world class striker for Spain.  Germany’s D is too good and you can’t get through them with just anyone.

·         Netherlands over Croatia

o   The run has to end versus the Dutch for Croatia, who will have to fall back into a shell just to keep it close.

·         Germany over Netherlands, 2-0

o   They’ll meet in group stage and at the Final.  Both teams are great but only one team feels more like a team rather than a collection of highly talented players.  Germany wins by frustrating the Dutch midfield into turnovers and taking the game to the Dutch defense. 

Golden Boot

·         Robin van Persie, 5 goals

o   He continues is incredible goal scoring prowess from the EPL with an outstanding Euro competition.

NBA Awards

Here’s my NBA Awards.  Why?  Because I can.  Also, I really should be given a vote.  I mean, really, my opinion is better than fact.

All-NBA Teams:

I look at this in three ways: (i) Per 36 stats.  I like this better that just averages.  It helps to weigh players who play a ton of minutes versus those who play minutes in the mid-30s, (ii) How important was the player to his team?  This is why Howard is more important than Bynum, if not necessarily better (we’ll get to that), and (iii) How good is your team?  Kevin Love has the fifth best Player Efficiency Rating (PER) but Minnesota was 5-20 after Rubio went down. How can the “Best Power Forward Alive” lead his team to a 5-20 record? (and yes, I know he didn’t play the last few games, but w/ Love they went 4-14 w/o Rubio)  They only beat two playoff teams the last two months of the year.  Love is very good, but you could argue Rubio is more important to his team than Love is.

First Team:

PG – Chris Paul (it’s underrated just how average his supporting cast is and I’m including his coach…)

SG – Kobe Bryant (Hard to argue for anyone else.  This team undertook a huge change: new offense, new defense, new coach and no Lamar Odom and the team still finished 3^rd.)

SF – LeBron James (No explanation needed) 

PF – Josh Smith (BELIEVE IT!  Here’s my proof:  Atlanta lost their second best player, Horford, very early on and yet continued to finish with the fourth best record in the East.  Why?  Josh Smith had a great year and became his team's best player.  He put up 19p-10r-4a-2b and 5 FTA per game, 2 more than the next most for the team, Joe Johnson.  Also, even though I’m not a huge fan of these types of stats, but Josh Smith did lead the NBA in defensive wins shares.  Either way, Smith carried a team to the fourth best record in the East and just because you don’t care about Atlanta, doesn’t mean he didn’t have a very good season)

C – Dwight Howard (I’d take Bynum over him, but, without Bynum, Lakers are still a playoff team.  W/o Howard, the Magic would struggle to win 20 games)

Second Team:

PG – Russ Westbrook (Very good player on both ends of the court, hard to go wrong here)

SG – Dwyane Wade (I thought about Harden, but Wade put up 24-5-5 per 36 and Harden put up 19-5-4)

SF – Kevin Durant (yes, he had the second best season overall.  The only problem?  It was the second best year at his position and that’s how this voting works)

PF – Blake Griffin (Let’s compare 6 players on per 36 stats: K. Love 24-12, 44.8% FG; Dirk 23-7, 45.7%; Aldridge 22-8, 51.2%; Blake 21-11, 54.9%; Pau 17-10, 50.1%; J. Smoov 19-10, 45.8%.  Blake’s numbers are similar to K-Love’s but Blake was the second best player on the 4^th best team.   Love was the best player on a team that fell apart when the next best player got injured.  Remember, the Clips lost Billups and he was playing 35+ minutes a night before his injury.  Plus, Blake’s shooting percentage was a lot better than Kevin Love’s, even though the perception is Love is a much better shooter)

C – Andrew Bynum (if Orlando offered me Dwight straight up for Bynum, I’d say no.  Dwight is a better athlete and defender, but Bynum is just as long as much better offensively.  Bynum has some real good low post moves that will make him a beast down the road)

Third Team:

PG – Tony Parker (Let’s compare Parker to Rondo, the next logical pick.   Parker’s per 36’s: 21-3-9, 3 TOs, 5 FTA, 48% FG.  Rondo’s per 36’s: 12-5-11, 4 TOs, 3 FTA, 44.8% FG.  Now, both lines are respectable, but less turnovers and getting to the line more often tips the scales in favor of Parker for me)

SG – James Harden (already discussed why Wade is ahead of him)

SF – Carmelo Anthony (I wanted to give this to Rudy Gay, but he just didn’t do enough to earn it.   Carmelo may be a coach killer, but look at his per 36 compared to Gay’s and Paul Pierce: 24-7-4 Melo; 21-6-5 PP; 18-6-2 Rudy.  When Melo was moved to PF late in the year, it made him the third best SF.  I know, it doesn’t make sense to me either.)

PF – Kevin Love (Dirk took too long to kick it into gear, Love grabbed a lot more rebounds than Aldridge and Pau was really the third best player on his team and it showed when Kobe got injured and the offense ran through Bynum)

C – Al Jefferson (This one was tough, let’s compare 7 centers here on per 36’s: Gortat 17-11, 1.7 blocks, 55.5%; Chandler 12-11, 1.6, 67.9%; Noah 12-12, 1.7, 50.8%; Al Jefferson 20-10, 1.8, 49.2%; Duncan 20-12, 1.9, 49.2%; Hibbert 16-11, 2.4, 49.7%; Marc Gasol 15-9, 1.8, 48.2%.  For me, it came down to Duncan and Jefferson.  The difference?  Jefferson was his team’s best player, whereas Duncan could lean on Parker a lot more.)

Rookie of the Year: Kyrie Irving

Coach of the Year: Frank Vogel (He was 20-18 last year as the interim head coach, his team went 42-24 this year, compared to 37-45 last year.  That’s right, in a partial season, they still got 5 more victories than last year and their only addition was David West)

Quick trade deadline post

- I don't get the Monta for Bogut trade.  Why would Milwaukee want an undisciplined second point guard to play for the biggest drill sergeant of a coach in the NBA.  So, unless they turn around and quickly flip Monta for someone else, I don't expect Skiles to stick around.  

- If I'm Orlando, I trade Howard. Here's what he said recently about the prospect of the Magic trading him: "I feel they have to roll the dice.  It might be tough, but I feel we've got a great opportunity. But they've got to roll it."  Hey Dwight!  Grow Up!!!  Does he really think he can just tell the Magic what to do?  If I'm the Magic, I trade him to Sacramento and then quickly turn around and talk about how the chemistry in the locker room has never been better.  Sacramento would trade for him so that they can put butts in the seats the rest of the season.  I'm too angry, and dislike Howard WAY too much right now to continue writing.

- I don't believe any big names get moved, mostly just players changing teams on lesser teams, such as the Bogut for Monta trade.  Look for the Clippers to trade for a two-guard, maybe someone like Courtney Lee from the Rockets.  Look for the Lakers to keep Gasol.  Look for Chi/Mia/Atl/Ind/Phi to all stay relatively pat.  No good teams are really going to make much of a move except for Portland and the Clips.  

- As I said before, Portland should go after Nash.  So, Rip City, GO GET NASH!!!!

- To sum up, nothing big will happen unless it's between to average or bad teams unless Dwight does move (though Orlando wont trade him because they lack a backbone)

2012 NBA Preview

Atlanta:

Replaced Jamal Crawford with Jerry Stackhouse and T-Mac.  In 2011, that’s not a good thing.  They’ve got some depth as long as Jeff Teague can play the way he did in the playoffs last year.  Unless they trade Josh Smith for pennies on the dollar, (J-Smoov is owed $25.6 million over the next two years of his contract and doesn’t leave much cap wiggle room for Atlanta) I say ATL is still a top team in the East.

Boston:

Traded Big Baby for Brandon Bass and lost Jeff Green for the year.  They’ll be good but might struggle in the regular season with so many games.  Interesting to note that the Celts lead the league in salary this year ($88 mill) but are only on the books for $34 mill next year.  So, this could be it for Boston unless they re-sign Garnett/Allen/Green/Bass.

Charlotte:

They’re tanking.  And that’s all you need to know.  Cap hit this year: $52 mill.  Next year: $40.  They have a lot of wiggle room with the cap but expect them to move their highest paid guy (Maggette) as an amnesty next year to go after 2 big time free agents.  A lot of assets on the team, but most are only as role players so drafting well next year and getting those free agents will be huge.

Chicago:

I’m biased and that should be known.  I think the Bulls can be very good this year.  They go 10 deep and if Jimmy Butler can turn out to be a good pick out of Marquette, they could go 11 deep.  My guess is a top-3 seed but it all depends on health.  Getting Rip was a very good move for them.  I actually said they should do that last summer on this blog…I wonder if Paxson reads this blog…

Cleveland:

They suck.  What else do you want to know?  Antawn Jamison is an expiring contract and expect him to be bought out and move to a team that needs a four man who can score off the bench.  Otherwise, not much to see here other than my boy Ramon Sessions!    

Dallas:

Apparently Lamar Odom will play SF for them…not sure how well that will work as Marion was a big part of the team last year with his wing defense.  Vince Carter sucks but they still have Jason Terry.  Anyway you look at it, this team is not deep but is still good.  Expect them to go with a closing line-up of Dirk/Odom/Marion/Terry/Kidd to give other teams with old-school centers a match-up problem. 

Denver:

Got screwed with 3 potential starters getting stuck in China.  They still have talent but lose a lot of depth without those guys.  I actually am one of the few who think Afflalo was overpaid.  I think he’s good, but not sure he’s worth that much money.  Same with Nene, who’s going to get $13 million for the next five years.  They could still be good because of how many assests they have but would need to pull off a trade for a PF who can score (Scola? Pau?).

Detroit:

Why did Prince re-sign with this team?  And why did Stuckey?  Nothing about this team looks good.  They’re a shitty mix of old and young that really doesn’t work well.  Brandon Knight will probably be good down the line but when will he play in a backcourt that has Stuckey/Ben Gordon/Will Bynum?

Golden State:

Warriors have talent and can score but aren’t very deep and have a rookie coach.  Hard to gage them, but they’ll definitely need a lot out of rookie Klay Thompson as a back-up to Curry and Ellis.  Otherwise, those two will have to play a lot.  I’m also not sold on their front court as they try to become more defensive minded…

Houston:

Wow.  This team could be bad.  Or they could get an 8 seed.  Hard to know what will happen with them but know that they have a lot of cap wiggle space starting next year when K-Mart becomes an expiring contract worth $13 million.  This team could easily be 7-8 new players by this time next year.  No real depth, no stars.  Not a good combo.  But, they have assets (including cap space) to make a trade (Pau?!?!?) and get the team moving towards signing a big time player in free agency.  Dalembert is just a fill-in until they make a run at someone this summer…whomever that may be.

Indiana:

This is my surprise team of the year...and apparently everyone else’s as well.  They aren’t too deep, but they could be good.  A good starting 5, and they have 3 former starters coming off the bench (Dahntay Jones/George Hill/Hansbrough) and that gives them a good 8-man rotation come playoff time.  IF David West can be healthy and come back to form of his all-star days, that would be huge for this team.  They need a second establish scorer to go with Granger.  Watch out, this team could be a top-4 seed if Hibbert turns into a 20-10 guy.

LA Clippers:

My boys, Trey and Trav, need to make the team so I can get some free tickets!  Haha.  Trey will make it because they’re short on bigs but not sure about Trav.  Anyways, on to the talk of the NBA and the acquisition of Chris Paul.  To me, this helps them more next year, when they can get a vet player for mid-level, because right now they are thin at the big spots.  They really only have 4 bigs unless you count Ryan Gomes as a 4.  They are deep on the wings though.  They have CP3/Billups/Mo Williams/Eric Bledsoe/Randy Foye/Caron Butler.  That’s six players for 3 spots.  I wouldn’t be surprised if one of them (most likely Foye or Williams) is traded for a veteran big.

LA Lakers:

They really, really should have amnestied Ron Artest.  He’s still owed $22 mill over the next 3 years.  A lot for a player past his prime and coming off the bench.  Or amnesty Walton, who’s owed $12 mill over the next two years and he probably wont even play!  Anyways, losing Odom hurts, but they made some good little pick-ups: Josh McRoberts, a young guy who can get you 10 ppg.  Troy Murphy, a big who can spread the floor for Kobe to work.  Jason Kapono, a sharp-shooter who can spread the floor.  Those guys are minor pick-ups but they will all be able to contribute 10-20 minutes a night and score.  With that said, they still need Devin Ebanks to step up and make plays and, hopefully for them, become the starter at the 3.  He’s their X-factor.

Memphis:

This was a team with a great playoff push and return essentially the same team.  The only difference is no Battier and Rudy Gay is back.  I like this team but they are really cash strapped and have a big cap number.  Randolph ($71 mill over 4 years), Gay ($69 mill over 4 years), Gasol ($58 mill over 4 years) and Conley ($36 mill over 5 years).  So, in case you’re wondering, that means in 2014-15, those four will have a cap hit of approximately $64 mill.  That’s insane.  The one thing I hate is how people keep saying they have depth.  What depth?!?!  Darrell Arthur is injured and they want to trade OJ Mayo.  THAT’S THEIR ENTIRE BENCH!!!!!  People need to actually look at who the back-ups are this year and they’ll realize that the team isn’t very good off the bench.

Miami:

Obviously, they’re going to be great.  Very hard to beat.  Thier bench now includes: Battier, Mike Miller, Haslem, and James Jones.  Nothing too great, but remember, last year they didn’t have Battier and Miller and Haslem were injured most of the year.  So, with good health, no reason they can’t be the number 1 team.  The most important player?  Chalmers.  He needs to become more valuable, otherwise, expect them to go w/ Battier and Wade at the guard positions down the stretch.

Milwaukee:

Not a lot to like about this team.  I fully expect Skiles to get fired as they find their way to one of the worst records.  They have some good assests, like Bogut and Jennings and Stephen Jackson, but really don’t have a very good team.  Drew Gooden and beno Udrih are both overpaid.  I think they can trade some players and try to build around Jennings, but it’ll mean trading Bogut to dump the dead weight.

Minnesota:

Not sure what to make of this team.  They aren’t good, but have some talent.  They could surprise some people just because they go 11 deep (not really a good thing in this case) and should get some teams on back-to-back when at home.  Biggest thing for them is that every player is on a very tradable contract which could lend itself to a trade for a good player to team at center with Kevin Love.

New Jersey:

Their cap space is INCREDIBLE!!  Only two guys are getting paid above $4 mill (Deron Williams and Kris Humphries) and no one, I repeat, NO ONE is signed past next season!  This has all the makings of a Dwight and Deron next year and an average FA the following year.  Could be kinda like what the Knicks have done (Amare then Melo, then Chandler this off-season).  They’ll struggle this year (leading to a top-8 pick) and need to re-sign Brook Lopez at some point but the future look bright for Brooklyn!  With the recent Lopez injury, expect Deron to suffer an “injury” and New Jersey to try and get a top-5 pick. 

New Orleans:

Not a deep team but have a decent starting five.  They’ll go Jarrett Jack, Eric Gordon, Trevor Ariza, Emeka Okafor, Chris Kaman with Aminu and Carl Landry coming off the bench.  Don’t be surprised if they trade Kaman and Landry for picks or young players.  Both are in the last year of their deal and it’s unlikely they’d come back, especially Kaman who could go a lot of places like replace Dwight in Orlando.

New York:

They only have 3 players getting paid more than $1.7 million.  Kind of crazy.  Not sure what’s going to happen with their point guard position but that’s this team’s X-factor.  If Baron Davis can be 80% of 2007 Davis?  Whoa!  Otherwise, not much of a bench, so a lot will be expected out of rookie Iman Shumpert.  I like the team but they will wear down as they’ll show the problem with teaming up w/ your buddies when there is no one on the team to back you up when you come off the bench.  Amare will get WAY worn down during the year.

Oklahoma City:

This is the same team that looked real good last year.  And all of their rotation players are signed through next year…Wow.  I mean, Nick Collison, a solid back-up, is due $11 million over the next 4 years.  Serge Ibaka, $7 million over the next 3 years.  James Harden $18 million over the next 3 years.  Well, you get the point.  A lot of good contracts for a lot of good players.  They’re going to be around for a loooong time.

Orlando:

Aparently they have Larry Hughes…who knew Larry Hughes was still alive??  Anyways, just as puzzling is what happens to this team this year.  Do they play good w/ and w/o Dwight (like Denver last year).  Or bad w/ Dwight and good w/o (Dwight being a cancer).  Or good w/ Dwight and bad w/o (see: Cavaliers, Cleveland).  They’re still a good team and if they get a replaceable center for Dwight, they’re still a playoff team.  Also, with Gilbert amnestied, expect any team trading for Dwight to have to take Hedo and his $32 mill over 3 years contract.  And with Gilbert/Hedo/Dwight off their books, they’ll have a real good chance to turn the team around with great cap space.

Philadelphia:

This team has some talent.  May not be a big player in the playoffs, but they should be a playoff team.  Cap situation isn’t too good but Elton Brand comes off the books after next year.  But, for this season, on their bench they have Evan turner, Thaddeus Young, Lou Williams and Marreese Speights.  That’s a pretty good bench.  If Jrue Holiday and Jodie Meeks can progress, watch out, this team could surprise as a 5 or 6 seed in the playoffs.

Phoenix:

I don’t really like this team.  They just seem to not be good anywhere.  Nash is in his last year of a deal and the team has a lot of cap space next year, so, this could become a rebuilding project quick if they struggle.  The positive?  No real bad contracts and a couple of good ones, like Dudley ($21 mill over the next 5 years)

Portland:

This is a tough one for me.  They have a real good lineup and a real good bench.  But how good will they actually be?  There is reason to believe they could get the #1 seed but I don’t buy it.  They have a lot of nice pieces, A LOT, but only really have one reliable offensive player down the stretch and that’s Aldridge.  Jamal Crawford could be the second guy but that means he’d be playing point at the end of games and that’s not a good thing. 

Sacramento:

Has a team ever tried more to be bad?  I do not understand how they are trying to build this team.  Tyreke and Jimmer like to shoot.  A lot.  And now they share a backcourt.  They’re undersized in the post…and go out and sign a 6’6 center in Chuck Hayes.  To sum up, I don’t get it.  They’re going to suck and will for a few more years.

San Antonio:

I like this team, but, at the same time, I don’t.  No bench and for an old team, that’s rough.  I’m honestly not sure who the 6^th best player on this team is…I mean, is Tiago Splitter any good?  Will Kawhi Leonard be good?  James Anderson?  TJ Ford?  They may want to trade Tony Parker simply so they can get 2-3 pieces back that can actually help this team.

Toronto:

The Sacramento of the East...only worse.  They got a lot of players who like to shoot the ball.  They got…a lot of players…and none of them are really any good.  I mean, their center, Bargnani, who is seven feet tall by the way, averaged of 5 rebounds last year! YES, FIVE!  And he averaged 35 minutes a game!  That’s one rebound every 7 minutes of play!!!!  I could do that!!!  Ok, enough with Toronto…

Utah:

This team has pieces.  They really do.  The problem, that’s all they’ve got.  Pieces.  So, until those pieces mature into real players, they’re going to struggle.  Expect Al Jefferson to get moved this year.  He only has one year left after this year and the Jazz want to go with Kanter and Favors inside.  Also, I like Alec Burks, the rookie, a lot. 

Washington:

Oof.  What a rough looking team.  John Wall may want to request a trade…and soon.  Look at this team and tell me what they actually have, assets wise?  I don’t know if I’d trade for anyone other than Wall.  Maybe Jordan Crawford and maybe Nick Young.  But how do we know those guys don’t just put up numbers for bad teams?  I mean, the Wiz are going to score 95 points a night and lose every night, so somebody’s gotta score.  It doesn’t mean that somebody is good though.  Pretty easy to score when you’re down 25 entering the fourth quarter.

2 TRADES THAT NEED TO HAPPEN:

1)       Dwight/Hedo for Bynum/Ebanks/McRoberts/two-firsts.  The magic need to do it because it gets Hedo off the books and Dwight is not coming back.  And the 3 guys they get back?  All young, and all could start for them in their post-Dwight era.  The Lake Show gets a star center and slot Hedo into their aging 3-man rotation at the 3 spot with Barnes and Mr. World Peace.

2)     Steve Nash/Josh Childress/Channing Frye to Portland for Marcus Camby/Ray Felton/Greg Oden.  This gives Phoenix expiring contracts of decent players they can try to resign if they’d like.  Also, it gets Childress and Frye off their cap because their contracts SUCK!  Biggest reason to do it though, a chance to resurrect the career of Greg Oden.  Image what that medical staff could do!  For Portland, it’s obvious, you get Nash.  He leads this team all the way to the Championship.  And yes, I think they could get there with this trade.  Plus, Frye can be a player for them spreading the floor.  Just think about the deal.  It’s a doozy.

 

Here’s How I See It:

East

1 – Heat

2 – Bulls

3 – Pacers

4 – Knicks

5 – Magic

6 – Hawks

7 – Celtics

8 – Philly

West

1 – Thunder

2 – Portland

3 – Clippers

4 – Dallas

5 – Memphis

6 – Lakers

7 – Spurs

8 – Denver

I say Bulls and Heat in East finals with Bulls winning.  Then, heat will sign a good pg in the offseason and they’ll win about 4 straight.  I see Thunder over the Clippers in the West Finals.  Thunder have a better constructed team than the Clippers.  Then, Thunder over Bulls in the Finals.  Kills me to say it, but not sure the Bulls can score with them.