Euro 2012 Preview

Euro 2012 is upon us!  This looks to be a top-heavy tournament but there very well could be some huge upsets on who get out of group stage and who gets sent home early!  Let’s break it down.

Group A

1.       Greece

a.       I’ve always been a big fan of the Greek national team.  They’re more talented than most people realize and they’re very large and strong giving them a nice advantage on set pieces.  I think the 2004 Euro champs will win their group behind their staunch D and  all of their Panathinaikos and Olympiacos players.

2.       Russia

a.       Most of their best players didn’t exactly make it in England ( Arshavin, Bilyaletdinov, Pavlyuchenko) but they still have some good talent.  My only question is how good is their D?  If anything, that would be their downfall. 

3.       Czech Republic

a.       Don’t know too much about this team but I do know who Rosicky and Milan Baros are.  And they’re both very good.  Even with Cech and those two, I’m not sure the Czech’s can advance out of group stage after barely squeaking into the competition in the first place.

4.       Poland

a.       After Lewandowski, this team is thin.  I don’t think much of them.  They’re an auto-qualifier because they are the host and they’ll bow out quickly.

Group B

1.       Holland

a.       I called them my dark-horse in my 2010 World Cup preview and they didn’t disappoint. They way they can attack is unmatched.  They’re fast, powerful and lethal.  Everyone, including me, criticize their defense and rightfully so.  However, they’re attack is so good that other teams are usually on the back foot when facing them.  

2.       Germany

a.       I picked them to win the World Cup and now a lot of people are picking them to win this.  They breezed through qualifying but the group wasn’t much.  They’re depth in the midfield is incredible but lack the speed of top-flight wingers, forcing them to play a more grind-it-out style.

3.       Portugal

a.       This group is the group of death because of Portugal.  They made it into this tournament on goal differential over Norway!  (go ahead, name two players on Norway’s team…yeah, I can’t do it either)  Denmark was the winner of that group and now we’re here.  Portugal is easily a top-8 talented team in Europe, but there are not better than the two above them.

4.       Denmark

a.       They’re ridiculously overmatched.  Their only hope?  A three-way tie for second and they win out on goal differential.

Group C

1.       Spain

a.       Not only is Spain ridicusly good, they only have 2 outfield players over the age of 30.  Two!  That’s insane.  They’re strike force could be a problem (David Villa is injured and won’t play and Torres is not in form) but look for young Barca man Pedro to take the reins.  If not him, then Llorente.  Whoever it is will have a lot of opportunities with that incredible mid-field Spain possesses. 

2.       Croatia

a.       They have some real good players.  Led by Niko Kranjcar and Luka Modric, they quietly have a good team.  The strike force is led by Shaktar’s Eduardo who has 23 goals in 47 CAPS.  They’ll be able to score with and defend against Italy and that is why I have them advancing to the knockout stage.

3.       Italy

a.       A lot of people are high on them.  Not me.  They easily made it through qualifying that had Estonia place second.  (Is Estonia even a country?  Do they have more than 50,000 people who live there???)  The key for them will be if they can score or not.  Balotelli has only one international goal and neither Cassano, nor Di Natale is of world class caliber.  I think they could do very well in Brazil in 2014 but this year is not going to be their year.

4.       Ireland

a.       See: Denmark. 

Group D

1.       France

a.       Easy draw for a team that has holes.  Their defense is questionable at best and their midfield is thin.  A weak qualifying group helped them greatly.  (somehow they played Belarus twice and came away with 1 point from the two games…combined.)

2.       Sweden

a.       Ibrahimovic is still the man for this team, but he’ll need service from multiple players like Sunderland man Sebastian Larsson and the old vet Anders Svensson.  Not a very talented team but they’re in a equally talentless group.  What helps them the most?  They get France in game 3 and the French may already have wrapped up advancing by then and rest their best players.

3.       Ukraine

a.       They have a chance of advancing if they can defeat England (and hope for a draw against Sweden and then goal differential).  What hurts them?  They get England is game 3, when Rooney returns.  They’re a host nation and probably don’t belong in the tournament.  Portugal could easily win this group but will instead finish 3^rd in Group B.  Shevchenko is still hanging on but expect them to rely on Dynamo Kyiv man Oleh Husyev for their offense.

4.       England

a.       No Rooney for the first two games (red cards) and no Lampard for the tournament.  Not to mention they have a new manager and unrest with the captaincy, this is shaping up to be a huge failure in the eyes of the Brits.  Andy Carroll and Jermain Defoe don’t exactly strike fear in opponent's hearts.

Knockout Round

·         Germany over Greece

o   The Greeks have great D.  But so does Germany.  The difference?  The Germans actually know what offense is.

·         Spain over Sweden

o   Spain could play its U-23 team for this match and still dominate.

·         Netherlands over Russia

o   The Dutch overpower Mother Russia with ease.

·         Croatia over France

o   My dark horse team!  It couldn’t set-up any easier for a dark horse run out of Croatia.

·         Germany over Spain

o   The presumptive final becomes the semi-final. This will be another classic like the World Cup Semis.  The difference for me will be the lack of a in-form, world class striker for Spain.  Germany’s D is too good and you can’t get through them with just anyone.

·         Netherlands over Croatia

o   The run has to end versus the Dutch for Croatia, who will have to fall back into a shell just to keep it close.

·         Germany over Netherlands, 2-0

o   They’ll meet in group stage and at the Final.  Both teams are great but only one team feels more like a team rather than a collection of highly talented players.  Germany wins by frustrating the Dutch midfield into turnovers and taking the game to the Dutch defense. 

Golden Boot

·         Robin van Persie, 5 goals

o   He continues is incredible goal scoring prowess from the EPL with an outstanding Euro competition.