2012 NFC Preview

NFC EAST

1. New York; 10-6
1. Don't worry about last night, they'll be able to pick it back up.  This is a team that is beat-up a bit, but they have the talent on both sides of the ball to win ten games.  This division has a very tough schedule (AFC North and NFC South) but I think with the Giants pass rush, they're in the best position to win.
2. Dallas; 9-7
1. They still have some problems despite the nice win last night.  Not every team will be down to their 6th DB when Dallas plays them.  They still have problems up front on the O-line and with their schedule, that could be problematic.
3. Philadelphia; 9-7
1. If Mike Vick could play 16 games a year, this would be higher.  But there is no guarantee to how many games he will play.  Because of that, I'm anchoring low on them in anticipation of Vick missing 3-4 games.
4. Washington; 3-13
1. This team needed help in a lot of areas but gave up all of their picks for RGIII.  That may become a smart decision in the future.  Now?  Not so much.  They are an average team across the board with a brutal schedule.  They will struggle to win games this year.

NFC NORTH

1. Green Bay; 14-2
1. Is it just me, or did they get better?  They added good depth on defense in the draft and Ced Benson is a big upgrade at running back.  Also, don't forget that Jennings is in a contract year which could really mean a good year for him.
2. Chicago; 11-5
1. I'm drinking the kool-aid!  They have a real WR for the first time since Curtis Conway.  By the way, Conway left the Bears when I was 11 years old.  The key will be keeping their defense healthy.  The O-line will get helped by a great 1-2 punch at HB and less blitzers as teams will have to bracket cover Marshall.  If this team had a good, reliable tight end (think Jason Witten), I'd pick them to win the Super Bowl.  
3. Detroit; 8-8
1. I say they regress a little.  Stafford is injury prone, the HB situation is still iffy, and their DBs are just average.  The key for this team will be to go 6-0 or 5-1 in this six game stretch in the middle of their season: Sea/Jax/Min -- Home versus GB, Home versus Houston, Home versus Indy.  They have a chance because of the home games, but it will be difficult.  If they manage to go 6-0 during that stretch, they'll make the playoffs.
4. Minnesota; 4-12
1. Not a fan of this team as I don't believe they really have a plan right now.  There are still some real good pieces on the team, but also just glaringly bad ones (see Ponder, Christian).  It may be a few years before they return to be a very good team again.

NFC SOUTH

1. Atlanta; 10-6
1. It's hard not to like what Atlanta does in the regular season.  They are steady and grind out wins consistently.  With New Orleans losing their coach, they will like struggle with consistency but that's exactly what this Atlanta team does best.  If they do end up airing it out, they may just be able to become a force in the playoffs.
2. New Orleans; 8-8
1. Football is the one sport where coaching makes ALL the difference.  We see it all the time, just look at what happened to the Niners last year.  Or Wade Philip's defense in Houston.  Losing the best offensive mind in the game is going to hurt this team more than people think.  Brees is good, but he's not Peyton Manning out there.  
3. Tampa Bay; 7-9
1. Going off the whole 'Better Coaching' idea, here's your model team in this year's NFL!  The old coach sucked and the new one is a disciplinarian who gets the best out of his players.  I'm anchoring low, but I believe they could take a big step forward.
4. Carolina; 6-10
1. You know, a team is more that a quarterback, right?  Good.  Because this team doesn't have much past its QB.  Cam put up great numbers from behind last year and he'll have to do it again this year.  

NFC WEST

1. San Francisco; 13-3
1. This team is going to once again be dominate on defense.  And, they got better on offense.  It's kind of crazy the turnaround Harbaugh made.  Alex Smith is a not a QB who can just air it out. Luckily for him, he has FIVE good RBs on his team and a great O-Line.  Moss will help to keep the safetys away from the line of scrimmage and that will just open the running game up and the short passing game for VD.
2. Saint Louis; 9-7
1. Talk about a new coach changing everything!  After their bye week, they'll have a chance to make a run.  They'll have 2 games versus SF, then a bunch of games versus average to bad teams (NYJ/AZ/BUF/MIN/TB/SEA), so they may be able to do it.  
3. Seattle; 6-10
1. What is there to like about this team?  They sign a QB for big money, then decide to start the undersized 3rd round rookie.  Now, Lynch has back spasms?  This could be a tough year for Seattle.  The killer was taking Aaron Curry 4th overall in 2009 when they could of had BJ Raji or Brian Orakpo.  That can really set back a franchise.  
4. Arizona; 5-11
1. They may be a little bit better than this, but I don't buy it.  Their punt returner won them games last year.  They'll need more than that to win this year and I'm not sure how well that's going to work when you have to play the AFC East and the NFC North.

Look for my playoffs picks tomorrow!

2012 AFC Preview

FOOT-BAAALLLL!!!!!  Let's do this!

AFC EAST

1. New England; 13-3
1. Hard to argue with this one.  The offense will be able to stretch the field better but the defense is still below average and the offensive line has gotten worse.  The good news?  Easiest schedule ever!  The Pats only play 4 games against teams that were in the playoffs last year, and 3 of those games are at home! 
2. Buffalo; 7-9
1. I like this team but think they are still a year away.  They may just have the best D-Line in the AFC, but the rest of the D is still just average.  If their offense can become a mini Green Bay, they'll become a playoff team.  That, however, is a big IF.
3. New York; 7-9
1. They are still going to be decent but their skill players are really pretty bad.  Only one good receiver, one tight end, and one-half of a good running back.  Over/Under for Tebow starting is Week 6 and I may just take the under.  They play SF and Pit in the first 4 games of the year; translation -- not good for an inaccurate QB with no real weapons.
4. Miami; 4-12
1. Not a believer in ANYTHING they are doing.  Why trade one of your best defenders, a 24-year old DB?  They are going to fall apart by mid-season.

AFC NORTH

1. Baltimore; 11-5
1. This is a good team but they are old and that will keep them from a 14-2 or 13-3 record.  If healthy come January, they could be very dangerous.  
2. Pittsburgh; 10-6
1. I think Pitt is one of those teams that will be able to have a little stretch mid-season of about 3 wins and play the rest of the time .500.  They need to stay healthy to have any chance to make a super bowl run but that just seems to never happen.
3. Cincinnati; 9-7
1. I like this team but I think they take a small step back.  Green-Ellis is not a premier back, he's a short yardage, dependable back.  They need to be able to run or Baltimore and Pitt will destroy Dalton.
4. Cleveland; 2-12
1. They'll be good...in 2019.  I have no interest in this team whatsoever.  No wide receivers.  No quarterback.  No defense.  No team.

AFC SOUTH

1. Houston; 11-5
1. This is a good team but they are going to miss Mario Williams and DeMeco Ryans more than most would realize.  Still, their division isn't much.
2. Tennessee; 6-10
1. This would be higher if they played their best quarterback...sadly, they decided the second year guy (who had a 16-25 record as a starting QB in college) and not Hasselbeck, who led this team to a respectable year last year under a new coach.
3. Indianapolis; 5-11
1. In Peyton's first year, Indy was 3-13, so this would be an improvement.  I like their offense and think Luck will be good.  But this has a Cam Newton feel to me (good year by the rookie QB, but bad record for the team).
4. Jacksonville; 4-12
1. Gabbert is not good.  Chad Henne is better and that's not saying much.  Their saving grace is MJD and a good defensive line.  Otherwise, they have the ability to go 0-16.

AFC WEST

1. San Diego; 9-7
1. This will be the tightest division one through four in football.  I believe San Diego's continuity on offense will lead them to a division title over Denver (even if by tie-break).  They'll need their offense to really carry them because I'm not sure any of these other three teams can hang in a shootout.
2. Denver; 9-7
1. Don't forget that Peyton in 2010 had some inflated stats.  His Yards per passing attempt was 6.9.  The best that year?  Rivers with an 8.7.  So Peyton's total numbers look better, but that's because he led the league in passing attempts.  The difference this year is that John Fox is a run-first coach and he's just not going to start airing it out because Peyton is there.  Another factor is that Peyton played his entire career indoors and now he's outdoors.  That's huge because it's harder to throw the ball and make the receiver just a tad bit slower (throwing off timing).
3. Oakland; 8-8
1. Oakland is just in a tough division and that'll hurt them a lot.  I still think Jason Campbell is better than Carson Palmer, but this team still has some real talent on both sides of the ball.  Unfortunately, they still have holes in their O-line and that could lead to an unproductive passing game.
4. Kansas City; 7-9
1. They are like Oakland: decent team in a tough division.  Truthfully, any of these teams could win this division and KC is one of them because now they have a head coach they don't totally hate.  Not sure they really have the weapons they need on offense to stay with some teams but their D could start to become one of the better units in the NFL.  

Look for my NFC preview on Thursday and Playoff predictions on Friday.