If you need a reason to read this 2,200 word NFL-preview, just
know this: I drafted, and started, Julius Thomas on two of my fantasy teams.
Adjust your life accordingly.
AFC EAST
Patriots – (2013
record prediction: 10-6) – Obviously I’m going to choose the Pats to win the
division. And for those people picking the Dolphins to win the division: I hope
you know what you’re doing. Since Brady became the starting QB in New England,
this team has only had one year with less than 10 wins, and that was Brady’s
third season. This team is going to pump out 10 wins, especially if they do
what’s expected of them and win their first three games: at Buffalo, then home for
the Jets and Tampa.
Dolphins – (8-8)
– I think the Dolphins will be better than they were last year, but if they
don’t go to Cleveland and win in week 1, they could be in BIG TROUBLE! This is
their schedule after week one: at Indy, home vs Atlanta, at New Orleans, home
vs Baltimore, and then their bye week.
In other words, good luck. Crazy things happen in week 1, so if Miami
can’t win in Cleveland, they may be coming off their bye week 0-5 with 2 of
their next 3 games against Cincinnati and at New England.
Bills – (6-10) –
Not much to say about this team other than every time they show up on another
team’s schedule, the Bills will be counted as a one of the “guaranteed wins”
even before the season starts.
Jets – (5-11) –
Hardest team by-far to project in this division. I think they’re horrible but they
may shock some people. If they’re lucky.
AFC NORTH
Bengals – (9-7) –
I know everyone is high on this team, but I’m worried about them and this whole
division. They get to play the NFC North, a division that may have 4 teams with
winning records. I think the Bengals are the best team in the AFC North, but
not by much. For me, their saving grace could be between weeks 11-17, when they
play 4 of their last 6 games at home. And have a bye week. And one of their
road games is against the Chargers, a team that might really suck this year.
Steelers – (9-7)
– Tough team to predict but I feel like they’re a team that no one really would
want to play. They’re still tough. Still physical. I just question if they have
the weapons around Roethlisberger to actually win enough games to make the
playoffs.
Ravens – (7-9) –
Don’t forget, this team really struggled last year just to make the playoffs
last year. And once they got in, they had 22:1 odds in Vegas to win the Super
Bowl…and they were already in the playoffs! They’re a good veteran team, but
they have a seven game stretch in their season where they only have two home
games. Those two home games? Versus Green Bay and versus Cincinnati. I think
that stretch could kill them.
Brown – (5-11) –
They’re a better team this year, most likely, but again, they have to play the
NFC North.
AFC SOUTH
Texans – (12-4) – This division isn’t really that good. The tough part for the division is they get the NFC West, so they get to play SF and Seattle. I know Foster is a question mark, but their backup, Tate, is good enough to be a starter. So, don’t worry about this team. They have a good D and a good O and will be a tough out for anyone they face.
Colts – (9-7) – I
thought the Colts were a bit lucky last year. But, then again, with an extra
year in the system, the team should actually be better too. They don’t have a
very tough schedule so I think they should come in somewhere just above
average.
Titans – (8-8) –
I think the Titans can be good but it all depends so heavily on their QB, Locker.
He must progress into at least a starter-quality quarterback. Right now, he’s
just a back-up. We’ll know what he’s made of after the first two games when
Tennessee plays at Pittsburgh and then at Houston.
Jaguars – (1-15)
– NEWS FLASH: the Jags will suck this
year.
AFC WEST
Broncos – (13-3) – They’re a great team in a so-so division. The division crown should be a cake walk for Denver. With Julius Thomas and Wes Welker, Peyton now has four weapons and that’s a HUGE difference. Their defense needs to perform well though because in the playoffs they’ll have to face some good offenses.
Chiefs – (8-8) – I
think this is an OK team that will get helped out by the end of their schedule. 2 of their last 3 games are on the road, but,
those road games are against Oakland and San Diego, two teams that may have
already given up by that point to try their hand at the Jadeveon Clowney
sweepstakes. So, if that happens, it’s almost like having just six road games
instead of eight. That’s big for a below-average team like KC.
Raiders – (4-12)
– No real faith in this team other than they usually seem to luck into a win or
two every year. But they really aren’t very good. Plus, roughly 40% of their
cap space is being used on players no longer on the team…fun times!
Chargers – (2-14)
– This team has had a lot of early injuries and a new system and new coach. I
think they look to start over after this season and are the first team to take
a QB in the draft.
NFC WEST
49ers – (11-5) – The thing that worries me the most about SF is the Crabtree injury. Kap is a good QB but does need good players around him. Don’t forget, Crabtree had 85 catches for 1,100 yards. That’s a lot to replace. Their D is still very polished and somehow added Nnamdi Asomugha in the offseason for only $3 mill a year. They’ll need to get off to a quick start though because the second half of their schedule is harder than their first half.
Seahawks – (9-7) –
To me, this team was always a bit overrated.
GREAT home team. But their only easy road game this year is at Carolina,
so if they don’t go 8-0 at home, it could be a tough season for them.
Rams – (9-7) – I was
high on this team last year and I’m high on them again this year. I’m not sure
where those nine wins will come from, but I think this may be one of those
teams that pulls off some upsets.
Cardinals – (7-9)
– This team will be better. Better coach. Better QB. But that doesn’t mean
everything. This team had a very good defense the first half of the year and that’s
why they won the games they did. They need a similar performance from the D
this year to get to above .500.
NFC SOUTH
Falcons - (14-2) – This team is going to be GREAT this year…IF they avoid injuries. They have two of the best WRs and one of the best QBs. If Steven Jackson is able to give them more than Michael Turner did, they’ll be awesome. Also, they get lucky with their schedule, getting both New England and Seattle at home in Atlanta.
Saints – (10-6) –
I, like everyone else, expect the Saints to fully pick up where they left off
before Payton get suspended. The good
news? They get Carolina twice, Saint Louis and Tampa Bay for their final four
games. The bad news? The four week leading up to that look like this: home vs
Dallas, home vs SF, at Atlanta, and at Seattle. If New Orleans can survive that
brutal four week stretch, they’ll be fine. But go 0-4? Not so sure what happens
to them.
Bucs – (7-9) – They
should be a solid team this year but Josh Freeman is a lame duck QB at this
point. I don’t think Tampa wants him. They brought in Glennon from NC State and
played him A LOT in the preseason. Some people even think Glennon could replace
Freeman during the year. I like their D, I like their running game and even
their receivers. But that QB situation could be the downfall of this team.
However, if Freeman plays well, and solidifies his spot as the starting QB,
they will threaten for a playoff spot.
Panthers – (5-11)
– They can’t all be winners. And the Panthers are definitely the losers here. Here’s
the crazy thing: the Saints, Bucs, and Panthers all went 7-9 last year and
Carolina “won” the tie-breaker for second place. Why did I put “won” in quotes?
Because that means they get the second place teams in the NFC East and NFC North.
So, not only do they have to play Atlanta twice, New Orleans twice, SF,
Seattle, and New England, but now they also have to go to Minnesota and host
the Giants. Not a very good trade-off for winning the tie-breaker if you ask
me.
NFC NORTH
Packers – (11-5) – Not sure how you can pick another team to win this division. All of these teams are good but none have the weapons that the Packers offense has. The hard part about the Packers winning 11 games? Outside of Cleveland, they may not have an easy game on the schedule. Now, I know, when people see Green Bay on their schedule, that’s not good news for them. But it’s tough to play week after week against playoff caliber opponents.
Lions – (10-6) –
I think Reggie Bush makes all of the difference on this team. He’s going to add
a dimension of a pass-first RB they haven’t had. I could see him getting 6-8
catches a game, with most of those being screens and bubble passes. He’s the
player this offense has missed for years. Defensively, their back 7 is really
quite bad, but that front 4 is unbelievable. I’m not sure if you can do
anything but keep 6-7 in each play to block/chip their D-ends because you’ll
probably have to double both DTs each passing play.
Vikings – (8-8) –
This is a good team but I still question Ponder’s abilities. He’s really not
that good. When he has made plays it’s because of Peterson and the defense focusing
on him. If Peterson stays healthy, they’ll have a chance. If not? I think
Cassel could replace Ponder when the Vikings need to start passing the ball
more.
Bears – (8-8) – I
like the Bears but I don’t know if they really fixed their offensive line
problems. Two years ago, they spent a first round pick on offensive lineman
Gabe Carimi out of Wisconsin. This offseason? They traded him for a sixth round
draft pick. J’Marcus Webb started for them the past two years. This year? They
cut him when he got beat out by rookie taken in the fifth round. Don’t get me
wrong, I think the O-line will be better, but I don’t know how you recover from
all of that. Plus, just like Green Bay, I’m not sure the Bears have any easy
games.
NFC EAST
Eagles – (10-6) – This division is a crap-shoot to me. I could go with anyone here. The only reason I am picking Philly is because they finished last in the division last year, so now they get to avoid SF, Seattle, Atlanta, and New Orleans while the other three teams are not so lucky. Plus, they get to play at Washington in week 1 (RG III has not played since last January) and then home for San Diego and Kansas City. If they can start off 3-0 that would be a huge accomplishment because starting in week 4, their schedule turns into hell.
Giants – (9-7) –
Not sure how to pick this team but I think they can make a run after their bye
week. After the bye (week 9), the Giants only have three road games and those
teams are Washington, San Diego, and Detroit. I think they could pull out maybe
2 of those games. Plus, the scheduling gods helped them by giving them Seattle
at home and not in Seattle. They just need to be 3-5, maybe 4-4, going into
their bye and I think they’ll have a chance at the playoffs.
Cowboys – (8-8) –
This is the end of the road for Garrett. They have a tough schedule and would
need to get off to a hot start to have a chance. Just a guess: Garrett gets
fired, Dez gets suspended, and Jerry blames everyone but the GM of the Cowboys…AKA
himself.
Redskins – (8-8) –
You can’t talk me into this team. There is no guarantee with RG III’s knee. And
because they finished first last year, their extra games are home versus SF and
at Atlanta. Their schedule is brutal!
PLAYOFFS
AFC: Patriots over Colts / Steelers over Bengals
Broncos over Steelers / Patriots
over Texans
Patriots over Broncos
NFC: 49ers
over Saints / Lions over Eagles
Falcons over Lions / Packers
over 49ers
Falcons over Packers
Super Bowl: Patriots over Falcons
(my non-Pats
pick: Falcons over Broncos…I don’t want the bad karma of not picking the Pats…)
