2012 AFC Preview

FOOT-BAAALLLL!!!!!  Let's do this!

AFC EAST

1. New England; 13-3
1. Hard to argue with this one.  The offense will be able to stretch the field better but the defense is still below average and the offensive line has gotten worse.  The good news?  Easiest schedule ever!  The Pats only play 4 games against teams that were in the playoffs last year, and 3 of those games are at home! 
2. Buffalo; 7-9
1. I like this team but think they are still a year away.  They may just have the best D-Line in the AFC, but the rest of the D is still just average.  If their offense can become a mini Green Bay, they'll become a playoff team.  That, however, is a big IF.
3. New York; 7-9
1. They are still going to be decent but their skill players are really pretty bad.  Only one good receiver, one tight end, and one-half of a good running back.  Over/Under for Tebow starting is Week 6 and I may just take the under.  They play SF and Pit in the first 4 games of the year; translation -- not good for an inaccurate QB with no real weapons.
4. Miami; 4-12
1. Not a believer in ANYTHING they are doing.  Why trade one of your best defenders, a 24-year old DB?  They are going to fall apart by mid-season.

AFC NORTH

1. Baltimore; 11-5
1. This is a good team but they are old and that will keep them from a 14-2 or 13-3 record.  If healthy come January, they could be very dangerous.  
2. Pittsburgh; 10-6
1. I think Pitt is one of those teams that will be able to have a little stretch mid-season of about 3 wins and play the rest of the time .500.  They need to stay healthy to have any chance to make a super bowl run but that just seems to never happen.
3. Cincinnati; 9-7
1. I like this team but I think they take a small step back.  Green-Ellis is not a premier back, he's a short yardage, dependable back.  They need to be able to run or Baltimore and Pitt will destroy Dalton.
4. Cleveland; 2-12
1. They'll be good...in 2019.  I have no interest in this team whatsoever.  No wide receivers.  No quarterback.  No defense.  No team.

AFC SOUTH

1. Houston; 11-5
1. This is a good team but they are going to miss Mario Williams and DeMeco Ryans more than most would realize.  Still, their division isn't much.
2. Tennessee; 6-10
1. This would be higher if they played their best quarterback...sadly, they decided the second year guy (who had a 16-25 record as a starting QB in college) and not Hasselbeck, who led this team to a respectable year last year under a new coach.
3. Indianapolis; 5-11
1. In Peyton's first year, Indy was 3-13, so this would be an improvement.  I like their offense and think Luck will be good.  But this has a Cam Newton feel to me (good year by the rookie QB, but bad record for the team).
4. Jacksonville; 4-12
1. Gabbert is not good.  Chad Henne is better and that's not saying much.  Their saving grace is MJD and a good defensive line.  Otherwise, they have the ability to go 0-16.

AFC WEST

1. San Diego; 9-7
1. This will be the tightest division one through four in football.  I believe San Diego's continuity on offense will lead them to a division title over Denver (even if by tie-break).  They'll need their offense to really carry them because I'm not sure any of these other three teams can hang in a shootout.
2. Denver; 9-7
1. Don't forget that Peyton in 2010 had some inflated stats.  His Yards per passing attempt was 6.9.  The best that year?  Rivers with an 8.7.  So Peyton's total numbers look better, but that's because he led the league in passing attempts.  The difference this year is that John Fox is a run-first coach and he's just not going to start airing it out because Peyton is there.  Another factor is that Peyton played his entire career indoors and now he's outdoors.  That's huge because it's harder to throw the ball and make the receiver just a tad bit slower (throwing off timing).
3. Oakland; 8-8
1. Oakland is just in a tough division and that'll hurt them a lot.  I still think Jason Campbell is better than Carson Palmer, but this team still has some real talent on both sides of the ball.  Unfortunately, they still have holes in their O-line and that could lead to an unproductive passing game.
4. Kansas City; 7-9
1. They are like Oakland: decent team in a tough division.  Truthfully, any of these teams could win this division and KC is one of them because now they have a head coach they don't totally hate.  Not sure they really have the weapons they need on offense to stay with some teams but their D could start to become one of the better units in the NFL.  

Look for my NFC preview on Thursday and Playoff predictions on Friday.