Ok, so LeBron wants 2 things:
1 – A Championship ring
2 – Become a global icon (aka large market)
So when taking these into consideration, we can eliminate many teams. Obviously, with LeBron on your team, you are a championship contender, so let us go to number 2 and figure out what teams and markets can make him a global icon. Here’s my list: LA Lakers, LA Clippers, Houston, Miami, New York, New Jersey, Chicago, and Dallas. Let’s examine these and then talk about Cleveland as well. (In parentheses are the chances it could happen that LeBron goes to that team)
Lakers: There is relatively no chance LeBron goes to the Lakers. They are 30 million over the cap next year; so good luck getting LeBron to take a mid-level exception or veteran minimum salary when the Clippers can give him a max deal. (1 out of 10)
Houston: Interesting here because this only makes sense if T-Mac leaves and Yao doesn’t opt out. As long as Yao can come back healthy, he can help make LeBron huge in China, as he did with T-Mac. If that doesn’t happen, then this point is mute. (3 out of 10)
Dallas: Dallas has an owner who would make him huge, plus they already have a star from Europe that could help LeBron build his Euro image. This only happens if they trade Dampier and Marion and then let Howard go. Not too likely but there is a chance. (Interesting to note, Dirk has a player option for next year and if he walked, would LeBron sign with relatively the same group Dirk had?) (4 out of 10)
New York: This is what has been prophesized for over a year. -- “LeBron and Friends” directed by Mike D’Antoni and Produced by Donnie Walsh. -- Well, I don’t know if that’s going to happen. The Knicks have a coach and a stadium and a city to offer LeBron…and that’s it. The biggest obstacle is Eddy Curry. He has a player option for $11.2 million for the 2011 season. If he picks it up (why wouldn’t he?) then the Knicks have $27 million in the books and can sign LeBron plus one other really good player. The problem is they are coming to a team with no help at all. Here are the players under contract next year with the Knicks: Eddy Curry ($11.2), Jared Jefferies ($6.9 [player option]), Danilo Gallinari ($3.3), Jordan Hill ($2.7), Wilson Chandler ($2.1) and Toney Douglas ($1.1). Yep…not much there, huh? Now, if Jefferies and Curry are stupid enough to decline their options and walk, the Knicks are in business. That would leave the Knicks with only $9 million in salaries. You can do a lot with that amount of room. Hell, they could almost sign Wade, LeBron and Bosh, all to max contracts. That won’t happen and LeBron will not go there (most likely). (5 out of 10)
Miami: Have a lot of cap room but this only happens if Wade stays and they can resign at least Haslem. Right now, only 5 guys are under contract and none of them are PFs or Cs. However, this does have some chance of happening because Beasley is there and so is Chalmers. Also, after signing LeBron, Miami would still have about $14 million in open cap space. Combine that with a mid-level guy and South Beach, you could have a real winner. (6 out of 10)
New Jersey: So this just got interesting with this new Russian owner. He has a lot of money and can single-handedly make the move to Brooklyn happen. Jay-Z remains a minority investor and good friends with LeBron. Maybe the most recognizable city in the world; everything is in New York. This transition would make him huge. The Nets will lose no good players (Harris-Lee-Lopez are signed through at least 2001) and they have Yi who could help gain LeBron exposure in China. (The most watched NBA game ever was in Yi’s rookie year with Milwaukee and it was a regular season game against Houston; 200+ million viewers.) This scenario has legs and could go somewhere but Jay-Z would have to make a big sell because they really aren’t that good of a team even with LeBron. (7 out of 10)
Chicago: On the books for $38 mill next year. However, if they’re able to trade Deng for an expiring contract, they’d only have $26 mill on the books for next year, meaning they could have a legit shot at LeBron and another good player. If they salary cap goes to $55 million, which some believe it will, that gives Chicago $29 million in cap room. LeBron will take about $16 million from any team (other than Cleveland) and that would leave approximately $13 million. I think you could see a guy like Wade sign for a little less for 3 years at 13-14-15 mill and then go for a max contract with the Bulls. He grew up in Chicago and he could play on a great team. They could sign LeBron and Bosh. Even if they keep Deng, LeBron could still come in under cap because he can only sign for $13.5 million in year one with any team other than Cleveland. (8 out of 10)
Clippers: A lot of people like this, including myself. They could have a six man rotation of Griffin-LeBron-Baron-Gordon-Kaman-Thornton. Pretty good rotation plus it’s a large market that can help his stature grow. I could see LeBron loving the idea of taking a team with talent and winning with them, all the while, shooting TV cameos and making movies in LA. We all saw the ESPYs; we know he wants fame of all types. He would be all over TMZ and would love it. That’s the biggest reason for him to go to LA. And if it seems like the team would struggle because of lack of depth, they still have their draft pick from this year (probably lottery) and will have a mid-level exception to use on a vet. (9 out of 10)
Cleveland: The Cavs have a chance at keeping LeBron. However, they have a lot of cap space used up and even if LeBron only picks up his player option (leaving him a free agent in the summer of 2011), they still would have only $3 million in open cap space. Shaq and Big Z are the only guys not under contract. So, if he was to stay, say one more year, and they could bring in a good big man on the mid-level this makes sense. I don’t see how that happens. If anything, he signs a max deal and then Cleveland either resigns Shaq or Z to a mid-level for a year or trades a few guys for another big. They have Mo Williams at $9 mill a year average and Varejao at $8 million a year average. Not much of an enticing combo. He’s spent his whole life in the greater Cleveland area. He wants to be global and Cleveland (the city) only has about 450,000 people living there. Now, the metro area of Cleveland is about 3 million but still, it’s a small city in comparison to a Chicago (2.8 city, 9.8 metro), LA (3.8 city, 12.9 metro) or NY (8.4 city, 18.2 metro). So, he’s going to want to move, it’s in the cards. We can all tell. (Chances he stays in Cleveland 5 out of 10)
To sum up, I say if LeBron only cares about the global icon thing, you’ll see him in one of 3 spots: Knicks, Nets or Clippers. If Cares about winning Championships, Chicago is the place to go (don’t forget, MJ was a pretty big global celeb pre-internet and satellite TV, all in Chicago). I’m biased, but I say go to Chicago. It’s a great fit. They can resign a lot of the young guys when the time comes and they will be a really good team when it’s all said and done (especially with LeBron)
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If this happens, I will be one of the happiest people along with the other Bulls fans. This would be unbelievable.
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