Welcome to the Second Annual Sport
Sage NBA Preview! As always, I can’t
predict injuries or trades, but I can, and will, predict everything else.
You’re welcome, gamblers of America!
Note: Any time I give stats, unless noted otherwise the numbers
represent (Points-Rebounds) or (Points-Rebounds-Assists) or
(Points-Rebounds-Assists-Steals-Blocks).
·
Atlanta Hawks
o
I thought the Hawks retooled on the fly pretty
well. However, they didn’t get better. They’re still the sixth best team in the
East. They should have a good cushion on the seven seed but wont come close to
the fifth seed. They went for Dwight, they missed, then spent a ton of money on
Paul Millsap, Kyle Korver, and Jeff Teague. Throw Lou Williams and Al Horford in
there, and that’s Atlanta’s top-5. They’re not exactly world beaters. In fact,
their only hope is that Brooklyn and New York blow their teams up after this
year, add a $10m a year guy (Lou Deng?), and then slide in behind
Chicago-Indy-Miami. The only way this team does anything more than a round one
exit is if John Jenkins becomes a force from the three point line, so that
Atlanta can spread the court with Jenkins and Korver and let Williams and
Teague break down their defenders. And even then, you’re banking on Lou Williams
and Jeff Teague to become a 40+ points a night duo, and that’s a lot to ask.
·
Boston Celtics
o
I feel sorry for Celtics fans. Their team is bad,
but, not bad enough to finish in the bottom 3 of the league. Their best player,
a young, tier-2 PG, Rajon Rondo, is injured and will most likely be traded this
year. They have to watch Gerald Wallace for the next three years while he make
$10 million a year. They have to root for Kris Humpdashian. Not good times to
be a Celts fan. But, this team does have a decent backcourt when fully healthy.
The Rondo-Avery Bradley-Jeff Green combo is young and talented (but below
average offensively). I’m not sure if they really have much in the front court.
I know Olynyk was good in the summer league, but that doesn’t mean anything.
For the season, I think they will try to trade basically everybody to get picks
in the upcoming draft, so it’s hard to know what the team will look like come
March.
·
Brooklyn Nets
o
You can talk about Pierce and Garnett all you want,
but the underrated signing for this team? How about Andrei Kirilenko for $3.2
million a year? The guy can stuff a stat sheet for sure! Last year, he averaged
12-6-3-2-1 and shot 51% from the field. This team will be good, but we already
know that. The question is, in the next two years (everyone but Pierce is at
least signed through next season), can this team beat the Heat in the playoffs?
My guess is no. In fact, I don’t think they beat Indiana or Chicago. But it’ll
take awhile for us to know anything about them. They are going to really
lighten the load on Pierce and Garnett during the season, probably playing them
both sub-30 minutes and giving them back-to-back games off. The only real thing
we’ll learn during the regular season is who takes the last shot and what’s
their closing 5? My guess: Joe Johnson as the closer in the regular season then
Pierce in the playoffs. And a closing 5 of Deron Williams – Johnson – Pierce –
Kirilenko – Garnett. I don’t think Lopez is going to be one of their closers,
mainly due to the fact that with him in, it’s harder to spread the floor
effectively and give driving lanes for Pierce and Johnson.
·
Charlotte Bobcats
o
This team made an interesting move this offseason:
they overpaid Al Jefferson ($40.5m over three years) to become competitive. The
real question is did it work? Or, was it even a good idea? The Bulls own the
Bobcats first round pick if that pick is outside of the top-12. So, if they do
become competitive, miss the playoffs, but get the 13th pick in a
loaded draft…and then don’t get to use it? Oooff…Not good. But, on second look,
are they good? They have a backcourt of: Kemba Walker, Ramon Sessions, Gerald
Henderson, Ben Gordon, Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, and Jeff Taylor. That’s a decent
mix, but very young. And, none of those guys are really all-star level. Only
Walker is a fringe All-Star and even then that’s partially because he scores a
lot on a team with no other offensive options. Walker averaged 18-4-6 last
season but shot 42% from two and 32% from three. If this team is serious about
contending, they’ll trade Ben Gordon and his $13.2m salary (crazy, right?) and
go for a player like Thaddeus Young or someone else on a team that’s looking to
shed contracts.
·
Chicago Bulls
o
Full disclosure: I love this team. This is my team.
I’m about as impartial towards this team as a crazed parent at their daughter’s
U-10 soccer match. Yet, this season leaves me lukewarm. The Bulls will be
paying the tax again this season…not something they like doing. The only way to
avoid this would be to trade Boozer or Deng. Boozer would make the most sense
since it also clears his salary for next season and would give Gibson more
minutes. But, I can’t see either of them getting traded because the only way to
get under the tax is to take a lot less in salary back. And, currently, only
one team has more than $3m in cap space: Philly. And trust me; Philly isn’t
making a trade to get better this season. So, I’m afraid that if the Bulls
don’t win the championship, a lot will change in the offseason. Like losing
both Boozer (amnesty) and Deng (free agency). This is why I’m lukewarm. This
team is put together pretty well and is good enough to win it all. Yet, this is
probably their last chance. Regarding the season, this team will once again
dominate the regular season. Thibs does not like to take games, or possessions,
off. The key will be for this team to enter the playoffs healthy and rested. And
to get the #1 seed to avoid Miami.
·
Cleveland Cavaliers
o
Only one thing matters for this team: can they keep
their cap space while at the same time remaining a compelling team for LeBron
to sign with next summer? I think they can do it. Whether LeBron comes or not, is
a totally different question. I like how this team is coming together, Kyrie is
about to become the second best PG in the East behind D-Rose, and so even if
they don’t get LeBron, they still have a Max player in Irving. Anthony Bennett
was an interesting choice but when you look at this team next season, that pick
may have been a very shrewd choice. Varejao and Tristan Thompson has team
options for next season that may not get picked up due to the Cavs chase for
LeBron. I think they have a good chance for the 8 seed in the west unless they
decide to trade Varejao. If they do trade Varejao, it’ll be a smart move for
the long term, but I don’t know if it’ll do anything but hurt them in the short
term.
·
Dallas Mavericks
o
This is an interesting team. Not much defense. A
LOT of offense. They retooled by added Monta Ellis and Jose Calderon. I like
those signings as they should be able to take the offensive load off of Dirk.
However, Dirk’s comeback to All-Star level will be key for this team. I think
he’ll be able to do it. He’s in a contract year, wants to stay in Dallas, but
probably wants a lot of money too. I’m not sure what Dallas will do next year
but they have only $32m in salary guaranteed as of right now. If they’re able
to keep Dirk at a reasonable price, they may just be able to upgrade their C or
SF positions next season. This year though, they’ll have to rely on Vince
Carter, Shawn Marion, and Sam Dalembert to fill those positions. I believe that
those guys are a good enough cast for Dallas to make the playoffs, but it’s
going to be close.
·
Denver Nuggets
o
I’m not sure I really like this team. They were
built to play George Karl’s offense. And then he was fired essentially because
Danilo Gallinari got injured and missed the playoffs. Now, they return roughly
the same team and Danilo is still out for the first couple of months? Doesn’t
sound like a recipe for success. JaVale McGee will soon officially become
JaVale McGee’s Expiring Contract as I could see JJ Hickson taking a lot of his
minutes. Plus, where are they supposed to get their offense from? Wilson
Chandler? Ty Lawson? Kenneth Faried? These guys are good to very good role
players. They’re not stars. This team only works one way and that way is with
Coach Karl on the sidelines. This may be the team that falls the hardest from
grace this season. Side note: the Nuggets are run by the owner’s son, Josh
Kroenke, another heir who didn’t earn his own money. Only this time, he
actually knows the sport. Josh played basketball at Missouri and receive a
full-ride scholarship and actually played 16 minutes a night his junior and
senior year. But, he’s only 33 and probably thinks he knows everything (kind
like a guy with sports blog who declares himself a sage…). So, the question is:
does Josh Kroenke know what he’s doing? Does he have a plan? This is the man
who let their award-winning GM (Masai Ujiri) go and fired George Karl. I’m not
sure how those moves will work out, but his track record is a bit sketchy since
he did OK the McGee deal just last summer…
·
Detroit Pistons
o
A very interesting team in Detroit. They added Josh
Smith and drafted Ketavious Caldwell-Pope, a pure shooter who can play without
the ball. All of their players are signed through next season except for Rodney
Stuckey and Charlie Villanueva. If they just let those two guys go in free
agency, they’ll have $16 million to work with next summer. That could mean a
very nice haul for this team but I don’t think they wait that long. The team
should be ready to win now, except they need an upgrade in the backcourt. Right
now, Josh Smith is the starting SF and Kyle Singler is backing him up. I’m not
a huge fan of Smith at SF as he’s a much more productive player playing inside.
Smith has a 2 point shot percentage of 50%+ four of the last five years. His
problem? 3-point shooting. He’s never shot better than 33% from three. And,
worst of all, last year he took 201 threes, making just 61 of them, good for
30%. However, for the 2009-10 season, Smith only took 7 threes (his career
average is 105) and had his most productive
year of his career! The advanced stat metric of Wins Share gave Smith a
rating of 9.3. His highest of his career by more than 2.5! For comparison,
LeBron’s Win Share has only been below 13.7 once…his rookie year. So, the
morale of the story as always, if Josh Smith stops taking threes, he’s a MUCH
better. If Detroit is smart, and plays Smith at PF, they’ll need to add a very
good SF, and can use the expiring deals of Stuckey ($8.5m) and Villanueva
($8.6m) as bait. I have to think Boston would be willing to trade Jeff Green
for one of those guys plus a lottery protected first round pick from Detroit.
Either way, this team is ready to compete, and should compete, for a playoff
spot this year.
·
Golden State Warriors
o
A lot of hype surrounds this team. And for good
reason. They’re exciting to watch. But are they good? Let’s remember, they beat
a banged up Denver (missing Danilo) in round 1 and then played well against San
Antonio but ultimately lost the series 2-4. Now, they added Andre Iguodala,
which was a nice pick-up, but creates a bit of a log-jam at SF. There are
options for them, however, to play Iggy at SG and Harrison Barnes or Draymond
Green at PF at times. The second scenario seems the most likely. But, I do
think Iggy could play a lot of 2 if Thompson moves to SG/backup PG. Remember,
they lost Jarrett Jack, an average player, but a veteran PG who was needed for
the injury prone Steph Curry. They only have Toney Douglas backing up Curry
right now and really need a different, veteran PG to back him up. The Warriors
also lost Carl Landry. Even though he only averaged 23 minutes a game last year,
his per-36 stats (17-9) were excellent for a team with two oft-injured big men.
He’s been replaced by Marreese Speights, a much maligned big man who has
bounced around the past two years. If Speights doesn’t produce to the level
needed (he’s never fully been given a chance in the past, so there is a
possibility he can), look for the team to go small a lot with the 6-8 Barnes
playing PF a lot. And trust me; I’ve seen Barnes in person. He’s 6-8. And he’s
strong. He can handle the physicality of playing inside in the NBA.
·
Houston Rockets
o
Say hello to the team that won the offseason!
Congrats, Houston. Congrats. On a related note, how good is Houston? They don’t
really have much around Harden, Howard, and Chandler Parsons. They have Jeremy
Lin and Omer Asik, but not much after that. Greg Smith and Donatas Motiejunas
will try to be the PF next to Howard, so their stats will be a bit inflated as
Howard will attract all of the attention down low on offense. The real thing to
watch with this team is what do they do with Asik? He can’t play next to
Howard. Those two guys would clog the lane and ruin the best part of Lin and
Harden’s offensive game (penetration). So, they need to trade Asik to a team
that needs a good, defensive center. My suggestion: find a way to send Asik and
maybe a draft pick or two to New Orleans for Ryan Anderson. I know they’ll be
hesitant to move Anderson in New Orleans, but Asik would give them a dominant
inside defense with two of the best shot blockers in the NBA. Plus, with Asik,
that would allow Anthony Davis to play PFs on defense and keep him healthy. For
the Rockets, adding a great three point shooting PF would be a perfect idea.
The only catch: does Anderson not like Howard after their time in Orlando
together? Either way, when they played together in Orlando (three seasons),
Anderson’s per-36 numbers were very good (18-9; 39% from three).
·
Indiana Pacers
o
I really, really like what this team did. They
replaced Tyler Hansbrough with Luis Scola. Major upgrade. They replaced DJ
Augustin with CJ Watson. Good upgrade. Their starting five returns and so does
Danny Granger. This team is loaded. If they stay healthy, this team might be
the best team in the East. Granger is a former All-Star who averaged 18.7+ ppg
for five straight seasons (including 25.8 in 08-09) before last season’s injury
riddled year. Scola, although undersized at 6-9, has actually played center for
the Rockets in playoffs when Yao was injured. This finally gives the Pacers
what they’ve wanted for a long time: a 3-man rotation inside where one guy can
play both PF and C equally well. And really, outside of Brooklyn’s Lopez, Scola
can guard the center on any of the top teams in the East. CJ Watson adds a
three point shooter to the Pacers, and is the only player on the Pacers to shoot
above 39% from three last season. Scola and Granger are players who can start
for playoff teams and CJ Watson has proven he’s a good spark off the bench as
he backed up D-Rose for two years in Chicago. The only question I have is do
they try to move Stephenson or Granger? Both are on expiring deals and
Stephenson is due a pretty large increase after his play last year (he
currently makes $1m a year). My guess is they’ll trade Granger. Paul George
will see his salary go from $3.3m this year to $13.7m next year and the Pacers
won’t be able to afford Granger because of George’s extension.
·
Los Angeles Clippers
o
Not sure how to feel about this team. They still
have almost too much depth at the guard/wing positions. And still not enough
inside. I don’t know how they expect to win when their back-up bigs are BJ
Mullens, Antawn Jamison, and Ryan Hollins. That’s pathetic. At some point,
they’ll need to trade someone (Matt Barnes? Darren Collison?), and get a big
man that can hit free throws and play good D at the end of games. Memphis
proved this team can’t handle their big men in the playoffs last season. I
can’t pick the Clips to be anything this year until they make a trade for a
good backup big man. One plausible way to do this is trading DeAndre Jordan.
He’s a free agent in two years and will probably cost a lot of money. Money the
Clippers don’t have with Blake and CP3 on the books for max money. I don’t know
who the trade partner would be, or who the Clippers could get, but know that
Jordan is a bit overrated. He can’t shoot. Flat out, cannot shoot. Last season
he averaged 0.3 attempts per game from beyond 9 feet. That’s roughly 25 shots!
All season! That’s embarrassing for a guy that’ll make $11m this year and
$11.5m next year. By comparison, Noah took 2.5 shots per game from beyond 9
feet last year. And shot roughly 40% from that range! Jordan is not a starting
center on a championship level team. So, if he is your starting center, you’re
not a championship level team. Sorry, Clips fans.
·
Los Angeles Lakers
o
This is the most interesting team by far. Can Kobe
come back early enough to help the team win this year? Or will they just trade
Gasol and Nash, tank the year, get a top pick, and go for Melo or LeBron? My
guess is Kobe will want to come back to a contender and will try to force the
hand of management to make a trade for a disgruntled star in another city. I do
believe there is an outside chance the Lakes will shop Kobe to see what they
can get. Remember, Kobe’s contract is up at the end of the year and he has yet
to have his contract extended. So, if you’re Lakers management, at what price
do you bring back Kobe next year? If you’re able to trade Nash, you could sign
two max players and one near max player next summer. Now, I don’t think they do
that because the only two max guys you’d really want are Melo and LeBron. It’s
unlikely they’d want to play together, so a more likely scenario is go for one
of the two while bringing back Kobe at a reduced rate, say somewhere in the
neighborhood of $12 million a year. As for this season, I don’t think this team
is good enough, even fully healthy, to make the playoffs. Only way they are
better than mediocre is if they can make a trade for a star player using their
expiring contracts.
·
Memphis Grizzlies
o
I really like this team. They’ve re-tooled on the
fly nicely. They added Kosta Koufos to back up Gasol and still have Ed Davis
from the Rudy Gay trade. They also added Mike Miller and drafted Jamal Franklin
to give them some extra scoring on the wing. If Miller can remain healthy into
the playoffs and can give Memphis 15-20 minutes a night, that’s a huge boost.
He’s a veteran that just won two straight championships and a knockdown
shooter. The Grizz return Quincy Pondexter and Tayshaun Prince and that’s where
the void on this team is. I’m not ready to play either of these guys big
minutes in the playoffs (which is why a healthy Mike Miller could be so
valuable). But don’t rule out Nick Calathes, the Greek player who played in
Europe the past four seasons after a decent career with the Florida Gators.
This team has a lot to look forward to before next season when they’ll have to
hope Zach Randolph doesn’t opt out of his deal and leave while also finding a
way to resign Jarryd Bayless. If you want to know maybe the most important
X-Factor in the entire NBA this season, his name is Mike Conley. This team has
everything a team needs to win it all…except an elite PG. Although Conley had a
OK offensive series versus San Antonio (15-4-6 but 38% 2pt FGs and 27% 3pt FGs),
Tony Parker ran circles around Conley to the tune of 25 points, 10 assists, and
53% field goals. That needs to change for Memphis to get to the Finals. Parker
is a Tier-1 PG. Conley is a Tier-2 PG. This season is on his shoulders.
·
Miami Heat
o
There isn’t much to say about this team that
everyone doesn’t already know. They’re deep. They’re supremely talented. And
they have not one player signed for next season except Norris Cole. I’m not
sure what will happen after this season, but I can’t figure out what is the
more likely scenario: Miami wins a third straight championship and LeBron
leaves as his mission is finished or Miami loses and LeBron leaves because Bosh
sucks and DWade is old. Both seem plausible. Both could be reversed. If the
Heat win it all, I could see everyone staying to see how many championships
they can win. If the Heat lose, I could see everyone staying for unfinished
business reasons (important to note, the Big-3 do have contracts for next
season, they are just player options. So, all of the Big-3 picking up their
options and leaving after the 2014-15 season is very plausible too). I also
don’t think this team finishes first in the East. I believe they’ll coast at
times and rest up at the end of the season. They are not afraid of anyone in
the East. They know they can beat Indiana. They know they can beat Chicago. All
that matters for them is who comes out of the West. Certain teams are good
matchups for them (GSW, OKC, and Hou) while others not so much (SA and Mem).
·
Milwaukee Bucks
o
I don’t know if giving OJ Mayo $8 million a year
for three years is a good idea. I also don’t know if swapping Brandon Jennings
for Brandon Knight is a good idea. What I do know, however, is that getting
Gary Neal for 2 years and only $6.5 million is a GREAT MOVE! I repeat, GREAT
MOVE! I think Neal is highly underrated and a very good shooter. To me, he is this
team’s best offensive option. And that’s a problem. That’s also why I’m not
sold on Knight over Jennings. Jennings is better but Knight is cheaper (Knight
makes a third of what Jennings does). The big difference between the two if
offensive ability. Jennings can create offense for himself. I’m not sure Knight
can. On a team where you need your PG to be a game manager and distribute the
ball while locking down the other team’s PG? I’d take the Knight deal. However,
when you don’t have a playmaker on the wing or an insider post-up guy? I’m
taking Jennings. This team will struggle to score consistently unless Knight
really makes a leap forward. Remember, Knight plays in the same conference as
PGs like D-Rose, Kyrie, D-Will, Rondo…
·
Minnesota Timberwolves
o
This team could either be a dangerous playoff team
with good young assets. Or blown-up completely at the trade deadline. Kind of a
massive swing. Kevin Love doesn’t want to keep playing for a team that doesn’t
make the playoffs so they need to be good early to keep him happy and engaged.
I actually think they can do it too. They added Kevin Martin and Corey Brewer (who
was woefully under-utilized in Denver last season). But what they really need
is a full, healthy season from Rubio and Love. We won’t know what this team can
do until that happens. But the team is designed well. Martin and Chase Budinger
can space the floor for Rubio and Pekovic will allow Kevin Love to continue to
step out and not have to bang down low. Important to note that basically the
entire rotation is signed through the next three years. So, even if Love wants
out, I don’t think Minnesota trades him unless they get a blue-chip player
back. Otherwise, why trade him until you have to (2016 trade deadline)??
·
New Orleans PELICANS
(!!!)
o
Don’t know what to make of a team that clearly
should be in rebuilding mode, yet, instead decided to trade away their #1 draft
pick next year for a very good young PG. Most times, I would say you should do
it. The problem, Jrue Holiday does not make this team a playoff team. Even with
Tyreke Evans and a healthy Eric Gordon. All it does is put them in the position
to contend for the 8 seed in the West, only to miss out at the end because the
West if freaking deep! This team’s best case scenario is Anthony Davis becomes
a legit star and the new backcourt gels so well that they become a poor man’s
OKC. That’s a lot to ask for. But, they better hope it works out, because their
starting 5 is all signed through the next three years…
·
New York Knicks
o
We all know the Knicks will finish in the top-5 of
the East. The question is, did New York improve their team from last season?
They added Andrea Bargnani and Metta World Peace. Not sure that answers
anything. Metta is washed up, but is the only one who doesn’t realize it. Bargnani
is a good, talented player, but not sure where he fits in with a team that
already has a problem getting enough shot attempts for Melo, JR Smith, and
Amare…Unless they can swing a trade, I do not believe the Knicks upgraded their
team. Instead, they just added more people who like to shoot the ball. If they
end up in that 4-5 seed spot with Brooklyn, it could become an epic series. The
problem for the Knicks is that I’m not sure they win that series. If they want
to get to the second round, they’re going to need to avoid that 4-5 game and
try to get a 1-3 seed and hope for the best in round 2. But as long as Ray
Felton is their PG, I don’t see them making to the conference finals. Side
Note: I think Melo is going to LA to play with Kobe. They’re pals. They can
coexist. They enjoyed playing together with Team USA. I think this is going to
happen.
·
Oklahoma City Thunder
o
Well, if we learned anything from the playoffs last
year, we learned just how important Russell Westbrook is. I already knew this.
So did many others. I had him being a first team All-NBA player last year. And
he was very close to being so (hard to argue with Kobe and CP3 though). But,
for the second straight year, this team got worse. I said it last year and I’ll
say it again this year – I would have taken Harden over Ibaka any day of the
week! Harden is a much harder player to replace. Ibaka is not. He cannot score
unless he’s the 4th or 5th option and no one is paying
attention to him. He averaged 13-8 with 3 blocks per game last season. Swell.
The problem is, he doesn’t score from inside. He takes mid-range shots. So, the
Thunders third highest paid player, their only good big man, can’t even post
up? I mean cmon! Noah can post up. And actually score too. Now, on top of all
of that, they let Kevin Martin go! He only signed $28m over 4 years in
Minnesota. You’re telling me they couldn’t talk him into staying for $23m over
4 year and take a discount to be on a championship contender? Sam Presti is
starting to make some very startling decisions. The Perkins contract is absurd.
He’s getting paid $8.5m this year and $9.2m next year. He deserves about $2m
this year. Max. The guy is washed up. Their new sixth man is Jeremy Lamb. Yet,
they only played him in 23 games last season…and for an average of 6 minutes
per game at that. Now he’s your new Harden/Martin? The more likely scenario is
that Reggie Jackson becomes a 25-30 minute a night guy and let’s Westbrook play
off the ball for large stretches at a time. They do have interesting young
players in Steven Adams, the 7-footer out of Pitt, and Perry Jones III. If one
of those guys can step up and give them something (along with Lamb), they may
have a chance to win the West again. But that’s a big if. Because if last
year’s playoffs taught us anything, this team is a two man team, and if one of
those guys doesn’t have it, this team is in trouble.
·
Orlando Magic
o
I’m not sure what this team is trying to do. Are
they tanking? Are they trying to be good? Can they even be good if Jameer
Nelson is their PG? Too many questions if you ask me. So, let’s focus on their
future. I like it! Turkoglu has a $12m expiring deal. Why not try to flip that
at the deadline? There is bound to be a team desperate to clear some cap space
and probably willing to give up their 2014 draft pick to do so. And what about
Nelson? He has a team option for $8m next season. There is no way they should
pick that up. None. That would just be dumb business. No one is willing to give
Jameer Nelson anything more than $5m a year in the open market. So, what about
a deal with the Celtics? Gerald Wallace and Rajon Rondo for Hedo and Nelson? It
clears a ton of space for Boston and gives Orlando Rajon Rondo! I think that
could work!
·
Philadelphia 76ers
o
Welp, say hello to the NBA’s Jacksonville Jaguars!
Has any team tried this hard before to tank? Why trade a 23 year-old PG who
just made the All-Star game, averaged 18-4-8 last year, and was signed through
2017 for just $10 million a year??? Listen, I get it, the draft class is
loaded. BUT, there are no guarantees in prospects. None. No one knows how good
Wiggins and company will be. The Sixers just traded a solid tier-2 PG for
prospects…prospects that might end up not being very good in the NBA. I don’t
get it. I’m not really sure what Philly’s plan is here. Unless Tony Wroten or Michael
Carter-Williams becomes a top notch PG, they’re going to have to find another
Jrue in a year or two. You cannot compete in the league unless you have a PG
that is talented enough to bring it every night. The PG position in the NBA is
like the QB position in the NFL, if you don’t have a very good one, you may as
well not have one at all. And that is why Philly is the NBA’s Jacksonville
Jaguars. So, Philly fans, good luck winning 15 games this year.
·
Phoenix Suns
o
Wow...this team is bad. I like Bledsoe but he’s a
restricted free agent this summer and I’m not sure Phoenix is really ready to
splash a lot of money on a player who looks good when his minutes are
constrained to just 15-20 a game. Long term they are in good shape salary cap
wise as only Goran Dragic is signed for any meaningful amount of money. I think
this team could be very active this season trading players like Bledsoe,
Dragic, the Morris twins…basically anyone that’s even somewhat of an asset.
Phoenix owns Indy’s, Washington’s, and Minnesota’s first round picks, although
they are all lottery-protected. The best thing for this team is to have all of
those teams make the playoffs so that Phoenix can enter the draft with 4 first
round picks. If that happens, they could package Dragic and two late first
rounders and jump up to a top 8 selection. Otherwise, this team is a long way
away from being relevant again.
·
Portland Trail Blazers
o
I don’t even know why I’d write about this team
because my buddy Miles Scorsese is a die-hard NBA fan and Blazers fan. So,
before I turn it over for Scores to comment, let me just say that the entire
Blazers team is under contract through next season. So, they either need to
love the group, or start making changes come trade deadline time. Anyways,
enough delaying, here’s Scores’ take on his beloved Blazers:
§ The
Portland Trail Blazers added a vast amount of talent for cheap over the
offseason. The acquisitions of Robin Lopez and Mo Williams highlight the
offseason haul. Lopez, who will take over starting center duties for the
undersized and defensively inept JJ Hickson, was acquired for cash and second
round picks. Mo Williams, signed for under $3 million per year, will be
featured as sixth man and will be a huge improvement over last year’s first men
off the bench: Victor Claver and Meyers Leonard. Moreover, Rip City signed
veteran shooter Dorell Wright and picked up 22 year old Thomas Robinson, the #5
pick of the 2012 draft, for just two second round draft picks. Robinson showed
in Summer League and the preseason that he can be a physical rebounding force
in the paint. Portland drafted scoring guard CJ McCollum, who figures to get
solid minutes after he recovers from a stress fracture he suffered this summer.
The Blazers bench in 2012-13 was potentially the worst bench in the history of
the NBA, averaging an anemic 18.5 points per game. For perspective, the next
worst scoring bench in the league, belonging to Indiana, averaged 24.1 points
per game. By replacing the 2012-13 bench of Meyers Leonard (still on the team
but will not sniff meaningful minutes), Will Barton, Luke Babbitt, Eric Maynor,
Nolan Smith, Ronnie Price, and Sasha Pavlovic with actual talent, the Blazers
are in position to greatly improve upon their 2012-13 campaign. The starting
five last season led all starting fives in minutes played, which induced
fatigue and nagging injuries among LaMarcus Aldridge, Nic Batum and Wesley
Matthews. Now, with the ability to spell the starting unit with veterans Mo Williams
and Dorell Wright, and with the solid improvement of Joel Freeland, who will be
the first big man off the bench, the starting five will be able to stay fresh
for the entire season. Before the Blazers fell apart last February, they were
playing .500 basketball and had a legit shot at the playoffs. This year, the
team will not run out of gas midseason. Damian Lillard, 2013 Rookie of the
Year, worked on defense with Gary Payton this offseason. His defensive and
decision making improvement will be noticed across the league. Aldridge, happy
with the offseason talent, is now a proven allstar. His health is the most
important thing to the franchise, and the top factor in the team’s success.
Batum, now entering his sixth year in the league, had a great offseason
competing with the French national team, which won the EuroBasket tournament.
Still only 24 years old, look for Batum to take his game to a near allstar
level this year. Nagging injuries derailed his season last year, but he is now
said to be 100% and ready to prove he is worth his 4 year, $46 million
contract. With newfound depth and a defensive presence at center, this Blazers
team has high hopes. If the starting five remains healthy, 44 wins and 8th
place in the Western Conference, though a lofty goal, is not out of reach.
o
Well said, Scores…well said. Looks like somebody
needs to create their own blog…
·
Sacramento Kings
o
This team really doesn’t matter…do they? Nope! The
Kings do not have a direction. It’s sad. They had the fifth pick in the draft
in 2012 and took Thomas Robinson…then turned around and traded him in February
for nothing. They had the rookie of the year in Tyreke Evans in 2010…then
squandered the next three years of his career…They can’t find a coach to stick
with. Two of their three best players are their PGs (Greivis Vasquez and Isaiah
Thomas) yet those two don’t have the ability to play together without becoming
a massive defensive liability. This is a big year for the Kings as DeMarcus
Cousins is a restricted free agent and there are a lot of teams with cap space
and a strong organizational foundation that will be willing to spend money on
the big man. If the Kings aren’t successful this season, we may see the Kings
either move Cousins in a sign and trade or not match another team’s offer. And
then the Kings could really suck!
·
San Antonio Spurs
o
Not much to say about this team. They’re
essentially the same as they were last year but added Marco Belinelli. So, the
only real question is: does Ginobili have anything left? My guess is yes, but
not much. I’m not sure he’s learned how to play as he gotten older though. He
still tries to do the same things he did 10 years ago. This is kind of like
Kobe trying to still drive down the lane and dunk on two people like he’s 28 again.
It doesn’t work. You have to change your game. MJ did it. Kobe did it. Duncan
did it. But can Ginobili? If he doesn’t, expect to see a lot of his minutes
pulled away and given to other players, at least in the regular season.
·
Toronto Raptors
o
This team is really getting a lot of hype lately as
a potential playoff team. However, I don’t totally see it. They have two
back-up PGs, Kyle Lowry and DJ Augustin, but no starter-level PG. Their bigs
are Amir Johnson, Tyler Hansbrough, Aaron Gray, and Jonas Valanciunas. Not
exactly a front-court anyone is going to be scared of. So, I have to assume
everyone is in love with their talent and depth at the wing positions, where
they have Rudy Gay, Steve Novak, DeMar DeRozan, and Terrence Ross. I’ll concede
that the wing position is pretty well stacked in Toronto. But does that mean
they’re playoff bound? My guess is no. However, if they are playing well at the
trade deadline, don’t rule out a Steve Nash trade that sends one of their
current PGs to LA as both Lowry and Augustin are on expiring deals. Otherwise,
I think their new GM, Masai Ujiri, who left Denver to come to Toronto, has a
long leash and time to rebuild this team, so don’t expect any rash trades that
would damage the future of the club (aka he’s only adding picks, not giving them
away).
·
Utah Jazz
o
I like what this team is doing. Since Boozer and
D-Will left, they’ve been in trouble and were trying to reload on the fly. That
didn’t totaling work, though, as the Jazz finished in the 8 seed two years ago
and just short last year. This year? They’re going to struggle. But, they just
resigned Derrick Favors for 4 years and $49 million and their three highest
paid players, none of which are good, are all on one-year deals (Richard
Jefferson $11m, Biedrins $9m, and Marvin Williams $7.5m). What this team really
needs is Trey Burke to become a tier-2 type PG. If that happens, things will be
looking up for the Jazz. One thing to watch for is even with a lot of cap space
next year; don’t expect this team to wait for the free agent class to add to
this team. Utah is not a hot spot for free agents, so look for the Jazz to move
one of their three highly paid players on expiring deals for good vets on deals
with 3+ years remaining. A team like Cleveland would be a good trade fit as
Cleveland believes they are contenders to get a top-level free agent this
summer. Why not Marvin Williams for Jarrett Jack? Gives Utah a solid back-up PG
who can play in the clutch of games when Burke is struggling and takes his
salary ($6.3m per year through 2017) of Cleveland’s books. This team is a bit
too hard to predict as they will probably be one of the most active teams in
the trade market along with Boston and Phoenix. If I had to guess, I’d say
somewhere well below 500.
·
Washington Wizards
o
Last year at this time, we had the Harden trade.
This year, we have the Okafor-Gortat trade…yeah, doesn’t have the same ring to
it, does it? Anyways, I think the deal does make the Wizards better, except for
the fact they plan on waiving Shannon Brown. Digression: Why waive Brown when
he’s a solid player who is on an expiring deal and making only $3.5 million? A
lot of teams would trade at least a second rounder for him. Anyways, Gortat
should fit their team a bit better because offensively he’s better than Okafor
(Okafor shot just 48% last season while Gortat is a career 55% shooter). I think
they should have kept Brown, because he would have fit in nicely as a 15-20
minute kind of a guy off the bench. For this team to make the playoffs, John
Wall need to actually earn his contract. His per-36 numbers last year were good
(20-4-8) but they weren’t great. Clear and simple: if the Wizards are to do
anything more than make the playoffs and lose in round 1 over the next few
years, John Wall needs to become a tier-2 point guard. And right now, he’s not
there.
East
Playoffs Predictions
1.
Chicago (62-20)
·
The Bulls will be, once again, the champions of the
regular season. Health is important for this team, but as we saw last year,
even without Rose and Deng, this team still won a playoff series. Jimmy Butler
will take a step forward into becoming an elite defender in the NBA.
2.
Indiana (60-22)
·
The Pacers will ride the Bulls all year to get the
#1 seed. However, with Granger out the first few weeks of the year, it’ll prove
that although this team is great when completely healthy, they really do need
their top-8 to remain healthy at all times to win.
3.
Miami (59-23)
·
Miami will win a lot of games but they’re not worried
about the regular season. They’ll coast towards the end of the season not
worrying about home court advantage. This team has a larger goal in sight.
4.
Brooklyn (55-27)
·
It’s all about health with these guys and how much
the Boston duo can give them. If KG and PP remain healthy throughout most of
the year (and the others remain healthy too) this team could push Miami for
that three seed.
5.
New York (54-28)
·
I believe at some point this team will figure out
how to co-exist. And when that happens, they’ll go on a tear. Like a 25-3 tear
through February, March, and April.
6.
Atlanta (48-34)
·
Atlanta is neither good nor bad. Their just in the
middle. Good thing for them, there are a lot of teams beneath them. They should
be able to feast on the bottom of the East and make it to the six seed
relatively easily.
7.
Cleveland (40-42)
·
I believe in Cleveland!...to go 2 games under
500…but still! Cleveland, the glory years have returned! Kyrie will take the
next step and become a legit Tier-1 PG this season…Just in time for LeBron next
year…
8.
Detroit (39-43)
·
The 7 and 8 seeds will be a great race in the East.
A lot of teams could be here, but I chose Detroit because they have the talent
inside and outside to win enough games. Can they mesh quickly enough to win the
games that matter at the end of the year will be the real question.
9.
Toronto (37-45)
·
I don’t really think this team is good, I just
think their GM will make a shrewd trade during the season that makes everyone
think their tanking, only it makes them better (kind of like what the Browns did
this year).
10.
Washington (34-48)
·
I think this team has talent, but I’m not convinced
they’re good. I believe they’ll be derailed by injuries and John Wall not
stepping his game up to the next level.
11.
Milwaukee (34-48)
·
They’ll be in it until the end, then they’ll tank
the last two weeks to try and get a better draft position. Again though, can
they even score? This might be too high for them…
12.
Charlotte (28-54)
·
Al Jefferson will mean this team wins a few more
close ball games this year. They have some talent; they’re just still 2-3
players away.
13.
Boston (27-55)
·
Not sure Boston even tries this year. If they don’t
trade Rondo, they’ll sit him for as long as possible to keep losing. Too much
talent to completely tank though, so they end up here.
14.
Orlando (26-56)
·
They’re rebuilding well but still not a good team.
Long losing stretches will plague this team.
15.
Philadelphia (12-70)
·
See: the 2013 Jaguars.
West
Playoffs Predictions
1.
Oklahoma City (59-23)
·
KD and RW are still just too good to lose to bad
teams. The NBA’s regular season is not like the NBA’s playoffs. In the
playoffs, there is a lot more defensive scheming by the coaches. Not so much in
the regular season. If you have to play OKC on the second half of a
back-to-back night of games; good luck.
2.
LA Clippers (56-26)
·
Very deep team at the guard/wing spots where they
can rest or replace injured players. I think Doc will pull some strings and
you’ll see one of those wing players and Jordan going away for two centers to
replace Jordan.
3.
Golden State (54-28)
·
All depends on Mr. Curry’s ankles. That’s what this
season rides on. They’ve been hit hard the past few seasons by the injury bug
and I think that happens from time-to-time this season as well, leading to some
losing streaks in mid-season.
4.
San Antonio (54-28)
·
The Spurs have some good depth and can rest their
stars. I think they need to find a replacement for Manu during the regular
season in case he struggles again in the playoffs. Is Kawhi that guy? We’ll
definitely find out this season.
5.
Houston (52-30)
·
Depth is an issue at most positions, but when
healthy, they can beat anyone in the West. Also, I’m banking on Morey making
multiple moves to improve this team. He knows they need another good role
player or two and he’ll find that guy.
6.
Memphis (51-31)
·
I worry about this team becoming complacent in
mid-season and having trouble scoring in tight situations. Again, Mike Conley,
your time is NOW.
7.
Dallas (45-37)
·
I’m banking on the all offense, no defense team to
make good! Not sure how they’ll do it, but a trade is probably likely.
8.
Minnesota (44-38)
·
Another tight race in the West and Minnesota will
lean on its quality starting line-up to pull out enough games to make the
playoffs for the first time since pre-World War I.
9.
Portland (42-40)
·
Scores likes them and I think they’re decent…but
won’t get there in the end. Still, above 500 is not bad for a team that’s still
in a rebuild mode.
10.
Denver (42-40)
·
The biggest unintentional fall from grace that I’m
predicting. This team will not be the same without Karl. McGee’s contract is a
disaster. Is Ty Lawson even good playing for a different coach? When will
Danilo be healthy? Too many questions, not enough quality answer for me.
11.
LA Lakers (40-42)
·
This all depends on what they do at the trade
deadline and whether or not Kobe can come back by Christmas. If Kobe’s recover
goes into January-February, they’ll blow this team up and end up closer to
25-30 wins.
12.
New Orleans (37-45)
·
They’re trying but just not there yet. The only way
they do better than this is if the team gels quickly and they pull off a nice
winning streak while everyone else is sleeping from late-November to
mid-December.
13.
Utah (21-61)
·
They’ll be exposed quickly this year. Without any
real All-Star level talent, this season will be a very tough one for Utah fans.
14.
Sacramento (18-64)
·
Is Sacramento trying? Who knows…But, a blowup trade
sending Cousins somewhere is my most likely scenario.
15.
Phoenix (15-67)
·
The Suns wish they were the Sixers. So, expect a
yard sale in Phoenix in January that leads to a truly awful team.
I plan on
posting my All-NBA predictions and yearly award predictions Wednesday. Until
then, I hope you enjoyed my NBA preview and enjoy the NBA Season!
