AFC East Preview

AFC EAST

Opponents - (NFC South, AFC South) - NE (BAL, DEN) - BUF (KC, CLE) - MIA (SD, PIT) - NYJ (OAK, CIN)

(1 - Every division plays one division from the other conference. 2 - Every division plays one division from the same conference. 3 - The remaining eight teams in the conference are split amongst the divisional teams [referred to as variable games])

New England Patriots

Offense: They return the same offensive line for the 3^rd consecutive year, helping the continuity of the offense. They also added depth to the position by drafting 6 foot 8 Sebastian Vollmer, who can play guard and tackle, in the second round of this past year’s draft. Also returning are Randy Moss and Wes Welker to the receiver positions and they are added to this year by Joey Galloway (TB) and Greg Lewis (PHI). They will miss Jabar Gaffney, an underrated 3^rd receiver. Gaffney had built a solid chemistry with Brady since joining the Pats in the middle of the 2006 season. In the 07 season, Gaffney had 24 receptions and 4 touchdowns between weeks 11 and 16. Also, 2006 season’s playoffs, Gaffney had 18 catches in the first two games. The tight end position welcomes two new veteran additions to the mix, Chris Baker (NYJ) and Alex Smith (TB). Both guys, and fourth year man David Thomas, will compete, presumably, for the number 2 TE position behind Benjamin Watson. At running back, the Pats added one new guy to the mix, Fred Taylor (JAX). It’s unclear who will start and most likely, all the guys (Sammy Morris, Kevin Faulk, Laurence Maroney, and Taylor) will get playing time. The biggest news is the return of Tom Brady. Brady looks healthy so far this offseason. He backed up by Andrew Walter (OAK) and second year man Kevin O’Connell.

Look for the offense to continue to put up numbers, even with the loss of Josh McDaniel’s. The offense will be the same, spread style of attack, so expect Faulk to receive the bulk of the plays as he’s the receiving/third down back. The Pats will need either Galloway or Lewis to step up as defenses key on Moss and Welker; if neither can, Julian Edelman and Mathew Slater seemed to be their only competition, with neither have real professional experience.

Defense: For the sixth straight year, the Pats will have the same 3 starting on the defense line. Richard Seymour, Ty Warren and Vince Wilfork (all first round picks) have been constants on an otherwise revolving-door-of-players defense. Wilfork is in negotiations with the Pats about extending his deal, and although it is unlikely, if he were to be traded, expect Ron Brace to replace him at nose tackle. At linebacker, the Pats have 2 sure things, 2^nd year man Jerod Mayo and Adalius Thomas. Tedy Bruschi will most likely share time with second year man Gary Guyton at MLB as Bruschi continues to age. The other outside linebacker is a crap shoot. The Pats just got Derrick Burgess (OAK) and are apparently interested in Kevin Carter (TEN). They also have Tully Banta-Cain (SF) who’s been with New England before and young guys Pierre Woods and Shawn Crable. Expect Burgess to emerge and Woods to receive time at the position as well. The Secondary returns one starter from last year, James Sanders, and will replace Rodney Harrison with third year man Brandon Meriweather. The corner positions will most likely be filled by Leigh Bodden (DET) and Shawn Springs (WAS). Also in the mix is Jonathan Wilhite and rookie Darius Butler.

The defense should be a top-10 defense, but the stats will be a little skewed if the Pats have a good offense, forcing their opponents to throw more than normal. Look for rookie Pat Chung to get a lot of playing time at SS in the nickel with Meriweather moving to nickel back in those packages, something he played the last two years. The biggest thing will be who emerges as the other OLB from Thomas. I think Woods will be the normal guy with Burgess playing in pass rush situations.

Outlook: The Pats are poised to return to the Playoffs. If Brady is healthy look for an 11-14 win season. The key stretch in New England’s schedule will be weeks 9-15. Following a week 8 bye, the Pats have 4 of their 6 divisional games in this 7 game stretch and will have to go to Indy and New Orleans.

Buffalo Bills

Offense: Offensive line is the opposite of New England’s. They return 2 starters, Langston Walker and Brad Butler, but neither is playing the same position. Walker is moving from LT to RT, Butler from RG to RT. They are starting two rookies, at RG Eric Wood (28^th pick), and at LG, Andy Levitre (51^st pick). At center they bring in Geoff Hangartner (CAR) who started at the position 4 games last year for Carolina. Look for veteran Seth McKinney (CLE), who has 45 career starts at G to replace one of the rookies unless they perform well. Marshawn Lynch will miss the first 3 games of the year for a suspension. The Bills have Dominic Rhodes (IND) and Fred Jackson to grab most of the carries, with young guy Xavier Omon as a dark horse in the competition. At tight end, look for three guys (Derek Schoumann, Derek Fine, and Shawn Nelson) to see playing time; with third year man Schoumann starting. Wide receiver is going to be interesting to see who gets playing time. Most likely, Buffalo will go with 3 wide and that presumably leaves Roscoe Parrish as the fourth man. With Terrell Owens (DAL), Josh Reed, and Lee Evans, the Bills will have a very good receiving core. At quarterback, the Bills need Trent Edwards to step up if they want to be a winning team. Edwards is most likely going to have an inconsistent offensive line in front of him and it will be up to him to get the ball out to his receivers before a constant rush. They are backing him up with Ryan Fitzpatrick (CIN) but the job is Edward’s.

The development of the offensive line will be huge. They need a running game to take the pressure of the offensive line in the passing game but without Lynch for the first three games, that may be a struggle. I don’t see T.O. being a distraction, but more of an afterthought. Think Randy Moss in 2006 with Oakland when he had 42 receptions. I say this because if the offensive line can’t protect Edwards, the Bills will have to resort to a short passing game. Terrell could get a lot of receptions in a system like that but not a lot of yards or touchdowns.

Defense: The D-Line returns all 4 starters including Pro-Bowler Aaron Schobel who only played 5 games last year before going out to injury. Look for Ryan Denney, who replaced Schobel after his injury, to also work in as a 3 man rotation at DE. The three starting linebackers return this year as well. Paul Posluszny enters his third season in the league at middle linebacker. Look for him to make a jump to over 100 tackles this year. At safety, Bryan Scott, who started 7 games at SS and FS last year, will replace Ko Simpson as the starting SS this year. Terrence McGee returns at Corner and Leodis Mckelvin will start this season at the other corner spot.

The defense has 11 guys who all started last year at least 5 games on their team. There should be a good chemistry with the defense. Donte Whitner is young and talented and the Bills will need him to produce. Buffalo’s first round pick, DE Aaron Maybin is still unsigned and may not have much playing time this year. To me, Maybin is a 3-4 outside linebacker, not a 4-3 DE, but he will most likely work into the rotation next year.

Outlook: The Bills look like a good team right now if the offensive line can gain chemistry fast. The Bills were 14^th in yards allowed last year, look for an improvement on that with almost everyone back and a season with 6-9 wins. The key part of the Bills schedule is weeks 1-3. To New England, then home against Tampa and New Orleans and they don’t have their #1 running back. Buffalo can’t get off to a bad start because 5 of their next 7 games are on the road.

Miami Dolphins

Offense: The offensive line returns two good tackles, Vernon Carey and Jake Long. The LG, Justin Smiley, also returns but the Dolphins brought in Jake Grove (OAK) to play center and are using second year man Shawn Murphy at RG. Look for teams to key on the right side of the line trying to force Murphy into mistakes. Miami has Anthony Fasano and David Martin returning at TE but also have Ernest Wilford as their fifth TE. This team is looking for wide outs and it would seem someone like Wilford would work because he did it in Jacksonville, grabbing 140 receptions in his first four years in the league. With that said, last year, in his first year with Miami, Wilford only had 3 receptions. At WR the Dolphins drafted Patrick Turner and Brian Hartline; look for Hartline to emerge as a top receiver on the team. Right now their top 4 receivers are Devone Bess, Ted Ginn, Greg Camarillo and Hartline. A lot of speed but look for the TE position to be the go to receiver in the red zone as Hartline being the tallest of the bunch at 6’2”. At running back, the Dolphins return one of the best 1-2 combos in the league, in Ricky Williams and Ronnie Brown. The combo had 1,600 yards last year and look for that to remain the same this year. At quarterback, the Dolphins still have Chad Pennington but are backing him up with Chad Henne and rookie Pat White. If Pennington suffers an injury, look for them to try and add someone like Cleo Lemon rather than go with Henne. Pat White is appealing because he can be their wild cat quarterback or he can play receiver or he can play running back; how they use him will be interesting.

The offense is good and I think Hartline can be a real good receiver. The key to this offense is how Pennington plays. Pennington has never started more than 9 games in an odd year. He is injury prone and it seems to bite him the worst in odd numbered years. Look at his games played stats: ‘02 – 15, ‘03 – 10, ‘04 – 13, ‘05 – 3, ‘06 – 16, ‘07 – 9, ‘08 – 16. If he goes down or plays poorly, look for this offense to struggle bad. Pennington led the league in completion percentage last year. This team needs him.

Defense: The defensive line is average in Miami. They like second year DE Kendall Langford. But this team only needs its D line to fill up gaps because they now have Jason Taylor (WAS) returning to the team as an outside linebacker. If Taylor stays healthy, he and Joey Porter could dominate, combing for 25+ sacks this year. Their MLBs Akin Ayodele and Channing Crowder are very solid players. This team will force opposing offenses to keep a TE or RB in the back field to help with Porter and Taylor. They start Will Allen, a sure tackler but gets beat a lot for a #1 CB, and Eric Green (ARZ) who only has 2 career picks in 4 seasons. They drafted Vontae Davis and I like him a lot. He’s physical but he’s the same as Will Allen, a good tackler for a corner but gets beat a lot. Davis can probably beat out Green sometime this year but also look for second round pick Sean Smith to get some playing time and for the two to be starters next year. At safety, the Dolphins have a great combo. Yeremiah Bell and Gibril Wilson (OAK) are both excellent safeties. The only downside is both guys are better at strong safety and playing near the line but look for Wilson to make an easy adjustment to FS.

Bringing back Taylor was a big addition and so was Wilson. If the defense stays healthy, they should have a good year. They were 9^th last year in defensive points per game and they could jump into the top 5 this year. (interesting note, one would think with Taylor’s age, that he’d only play about 60% of the plays but the starter at OLB last year, Matt Roth, is listed as the #7 OLB right now.)

Outlook: I think the Dolphins will have a good defense but will struggle offensively because I see Pennington getting injured or struggling. I see them staying in a lot of games and winning 5-9 games this year. The Dolphins have a very hard schedule. For their two variable games, they got SD and PIT. I would like to point to one spot of the schedule that’s important, but it’s all important. They start out with 3 playoffs teams (@ATL, vsIND, @SD) then get two home games, but it’s against divisional opponents Buffalo and New York. Then from week 8 to week 15, they have 6 road games. In addition, one of their two home games during that stretch is against New England. Also, they got Pittsburgh in week 17 and they better hope Pitt has already secured a playoff spot or that could be rough.

New York Jets

Offense: Return all 5 offensive line starters and expect the O Line to be even better this year. The offensive line has a combined 480 starts between the 5 of them. I don’t have the numbers but that has to be one of the highest amounts of starts in the NFL. Also, every guy has at least 48 starts and they combine for 10 pro bowl selections. Dustin Keller remains the teams #1 tight end but their depth chart has recently converted DE Kareem Brown as the number 2. The other 3 tight ends are all undrafted rookies. Look for Keller to get almost all of the minutes in this group. Chansi Stuckey and Jericho Cotchery are the numbers 1 and 2 WRs for the Jets. Brad Smith is their #3 but after him it’s a very thin group. Look for Wallace Wright to be the #4 receiver there. At running back, New York goes three deep including rookie Shonn Greene, who has been impressing people in camp. Thomas Jones is still the #1 and Leon Washington the number two, but Greene should be getting a good amount of carries by the middle of the season. Quarterback is a very interesting spot with the Jets. It’s a two way competition with Kellen Clemons and rookie Mark Sanchez.

The offense has good running backs and a great O Line. With that said, their receivers are underwhelming and if Sanchez does start, as most people think will happen, you don’t know how he’ll respond. The AFC East is filled with talented defenses. This team should do a lot of running because Greene is ready now.

Defense: Marques Douglas (BAL) is the new DE starter for this team, joining Shaun Ellis and Kris Jenkins on the D Line. Douglas is a good, solid player who is very durable. He’s played all 16 games the last 6 years of his career. The Jets added Bart Scott (BAL) to anchor the defense this year. He and Douglas come over with Rex Ryan. The other 3 linebackers, Calvin Pace, David Harris and Bryan Thomas all return as starters from last year. At corner the Jets added Lito Sheppard (PHI) and have moved second year man Dwight Lowery to the nickel corner. Darrelle Revis still starts at the other corner spot. Kerry Rhodes returns to start at FS but SS is an open competition between Jim Leonhard and Eric Smith. Smith started 6 games last year but look for Leonhard to win the competition as he is currently in the lead.

It’s hard to say how good this defense will be since it’s a new system with Rex Ryan compared to Eric Mangini’s. I like Lito Sheppard and they now have corner depth in case of injury but SS worries me because neither Smith nor Leonhard is a great player. Their line backing crew will be asked to do a lot, like Baltimore’s is, but only Bart Scott seems ready for that. Look for them to struggle a bit unless they only run a skeleton defense of what the Ravens run, which is pretty complex.

Outlook: I think this team takes a step back. A new coach and a new regime; they don’t have a quarterback and their receivers aren’t very good. Look for them to win around 5-8 games. The key stretch in the Jets schedule is weeks 2-6. They host New England and Tennessee and then go to New Orleans and Miami before returning home to face the Bills. This stretch is all the more important if Sanchez is the starting QB; he has to face the Pats D and the Titans D in weeks 2 and 3.